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Good morning and welcome to the first working day of June. On today’s agenda we have:
Donald Trump’s trade war has slammed the brakes on a global dealmaking recovery for the private equity industry. A new forecast from consultancy Bain & Company found that a long-awaited rise in dealmaking had reversed since the US president’s “liberation day” tariffs announcement in April.
The key findings: The value of deals for buyout funds to purchase companies in the second quarter is on course to fall 16 per cent from the first three months of 2025, according to the report. The figure for April was down 24 per cent on the monthly average for the first quarter. The value of assets fully or partially sold by buyout funds is on track to drop 9 per cent in the April-June quarter.
The context: The data highlights the mounting difficulties for the private equity industry, after several years in which a lack of exits from portfolio companies has left traditional backers such as pension funds and endowments with less money to commit to new funds. For the first time in a decade, no buyout fund closed in the first quarter had raised more than $5bn of capital, Bain said.
We have more on the mounting difficulties facing the private equity industry here and on global trade tensions below.
Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:
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Mexico judiciary elections: Counting has begun in Mexico’s first-ever judicial elections. The electoral authority announced late last night that 13 per cent of the country’s 100mn voters cast ballots at the polls. Results will be announced in the coming days.
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US monetary policy: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president Lorie Logan participates in moderated conversation at an event in Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president Austan Goolsbee will speak in Davenport, Iowa.
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Russia-Ukraine talks: Officials from the two countries meet in Istanbul for a second round of talks a day after Ukraine’s most audacious attack of the war.
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Companies: Campbell’s is expected to report a rise in third-quarter revenue, helped by demand for its soups and frozen meals.
Five more top stories
1. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent yesterday insisted the US would never default on its debt as he sought to assuage Wall Street’s concerns over the state of the country’s public finances. Investor jitters over the size of the US federal debt have mounted after Trump’s “big beautiful” budget bill was approved by the House of Representatives. It begins its passage through the Senate this week.
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Federal Reserve: The US central bank faces a tough summer ahead with a hostile White House, writes Mohamed El-Erian.
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Go deeper: The close relationship between US government bond yields and the dollar has broken down as investors cool on American assets.
2. US authorities are investigating a possible terrorist incident in Boulder, Colorado, after a man allegedly attacked a demonstration in support of Israeli hostages in Gaza. Six people were injured in the assault. The FBI said the attacker was armed with a “makeshift flame-thrower” and was heard to shout “Free Palestine” during the incident.
3. Nationalist Karol Nawrocki has narrowly won Poland’s presidential election, beating pro-EU rival and Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. Nawrocki’s win is a rare overseas victory for Donald Trump’s Maga movement. US homeland security secretary Kristi Noem described Trzaskowski as “an absolute train wreck” on a visit to Poland last week. Here’s more on what Nawrocki’s victory could mean for Poland, the EU and the war in Ukraine.
4. France’s Sanofi is to buy Massachusetts-based Blueprint Medicines, the maker of the world’s only approved treatment for a debilitating rare blood disorder, for up to $9.5bn. Systemic mastocytosis is estimated to affect about 32,000 people in the US. Read more on one of the biggest biotech acquisitions of 2025.
5. The Canadian Steel Producers Association has warned of “catastrophic” job losses, factory slowdowns and supply chain disruption after US President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on imports to 50 per cent. The steel industry in Canada employs 23,000 and supports an additional 100,000 indirect jobs, according to the CSPA.
The Monday Interview
Laurene Powell Jobs’ friendship with Sir Jony Ive has endured beyond the death of her husband Steve. After Apple, and its game-changing products such as the iPhone, the Silicon Valley visionaries are now looking to artificial intelligence to shape tech’s next chapter. “We deserve better. Humanity deserves better,” Ive tells the Financial Times.
We’re also reading . . .
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US and AI: Industries such as finance, healthcare and the media are on the frontline of change but when it comes to geography the US is at the epicentre of this shift, writes Rana Foroohar.
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Switzerland: The world’s strongest currency is not the dollar, but the Swiss franc — and it has not undermined the Alpine country’s competitiveness, writes Ruchir Sharma.
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Stanley Fischer: The former top policymaker at the IMF, World Bank and US Federal Reserve, whose students included Mario Draghi and Ben Bernanke, has died aged 81.
Graphic of the day
A Financial Times investigation has found that more than four-fifths of Gaza is now covered by Israeli military zones and evacuation orders. But Israel is not done. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has suggested it wants to corral Gaza’s entire 2.1mn population into a tiny corner along the border with Egypt, with the rest of the enclave off limits. Here’s more on the Israeli operation to clear the area south of the Morag corridor.
Take a break from the news
Is setting boundaries necessary or plain rude? Rejecting ditherers can seem abrupt but in our overloaded age, taking up valuable time can also be an affront, writes Miranda Green.
