Zohran Mamdani victory sends shockwaves by way of US politics | Invesloan.com

Good morning and welcome back to FirstFT. On today’s agenda:

• Zohran Mamdani’s victory

• Oil markets shrug off Middle East tumult

• Bank executives predict M&A upsurge

• St Paul’s Cathedral’s 350th year in pictures

Zohran Mamdani secured a stunning victory against Andrew Cuomo overnight in the Democratic party’s mayoral primary for New York City. The result will send shockwaves across Wall Street and through the Democratic party. Here are some early takeaways.

What was the margin of victory? Unofficial results last night showed that Mamdani, the self-described democratic socialist, has a seven-point lead over Cuomo, the former governor of New York state, with more than 90 per cent of the vote counted. The final result will depend on the tally in the city’s ranked-choice system, which allows people to pick up to five candidates in order of preference. The winner will be officially declared on July 1, at the earliest, after all other candidates’ votes have been reallocated.

Why it matters: The 33-year-old state lawmaker, who has called for higher taxes on the rich and assailed US support for Israel in Gaza, built a grassroots campaign supported by young activists. His financial support was made up of small contributions, with more than 21,000 donors, roughly 75 per cent of whom gave less than $100. Cuomo, meanwhile, enjoyed the backing of many Wall Street titans and built a large financial advantage over his rival. He campaigned on the platform of restoring the Democratic party’s appeal among working class supporters by pledging to hire more police officers and build more affordable housing. Mamdani is now expected to face Eric Adams later in the year for one of the most powerful positions in US domestic politics.

What are the lessons for the Democratic party? Mamdani’s campaign will be studied closely by the Democratic party leadership as it prepares to fight Donald Trump’s Republicans in next year’s midterm elections. Following Trump’s victory in November the Democrats have been riven between a progressive wing exemplified by New York congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and moderates such as Pennsylvania US Senator John Fetterman, who has praised Trump. Ocasio-Cortez congratulated Mamdani following his victory, saying in a social media post: “Billionaires and lobbyists poured millions against you and our public finance system. And you won.” Read more on Mamdani’s surprise win.

And here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:

• Nato summit: Nato leaders are bracing for Donald Trump to redefine the military alliance’s mutual defence pact as they meet for a second day in The Hague.

• Jay Powell: The Federal Reserve chair will appear before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. Yesterday he pushed back against the idea of a July rate cut in front of a House committee.

• Economic data: Brazil’s central bank will publish the country’s current account deficit for May. Separately, Argentina will post the nation’s first-quarter current account numbers.

• Companies: Micron and General Mills report results. FedEx shares are down more than 5 per cent in after-hours trading after the logistics company lowered its earning forecast for the current quarter while reporting fourth-quarter results last night.

Join FT experts and guests for a subscriber-only webinar at 1pm BST today as they discuss the Middle East conflict and what it means for the world. Register for free.

Five more top stories

1. The US air strikes on Iran set back Tehran’s nuclear progress by less than six months, according to a leaked early US intelligence assessment, casting doubt on Trump’s claims that the programme had been “obliterated”. The findings were furiously rejected by the White House, which said they were shared by “an anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community”.

2. A new cryptocurrency token designed to allow cross-border payments in spite of western sanctions on Russia, launched by a fugitive Moldovan oligarch and a Russian defence sector bank, has moved $9.3bn on a dedicated crypto exchange in just four months, the FT has found. Read the exclusive story.

3. China’s premier Li Qiang has said the country would “open its doors still wider to the world” as he warned of the risk of “fragmentation” of global supply chains amid trade tensions. Beijing’s second-highest ranking official said China would make its technological advances available to other countries as he outlined a transition from a manufacturing power to a “mega-consumer market”.

4. OpenAI and Sir Jony Ive have been accused of trying to “bury” a rival start-up that forced their $6.4bn AI device venture to pull down marketing materials. The chief executive of iyO said he had been “blindsided” by the launch of io, OpenAI’s partnership with Apple’s former design chief, as both companies had previously been in deal talks with his similarly named start-up.

5. US banking mergers will accelerate over the next year, executives predict, driven by a more favourable approach from regulators, intensifying competition and the need to spend more on technology. “My sense is that two, three, four months from now we are going to be a lot smarter about the economic backdrop than we are today . . . and given that, I think M&A will pick up,” one executive told the Financial Times.

News in-depth

As Iran started firing missiles at a US air base in Qatar on Monday, oil traders responded with remarkable speed — not by buying, but by selling. The speed of the sell-off in a market that typically surges at any sign of geopolitical strife caught many by surprise. Here’s how the oil market predicted that Middle East tensions would ease not rise with the US intervention in the conflict.

We’re also reading . . . 

• Iran: Does the country’s nuclear programme have a future, asks Gary Samore, White House co-ordinator for arms control from 2009-13.

• Ukrainian refugees: Strong labour markets and policies have helped those fleeing Russia’s invasion to succeed in other countries, writes Sarah O’Connor.

• Dementia: Some vaccines may reduce the risk of dementia, according to a study by Oxford university.

Chart of the day 

HSBC’s new chief executive Georges Elhedery secured the job with a pitch to reduce complexity and improving profitability at “the world’s local bank”. Eight months after Lebanese-born Elhedery unveiled his plan he has largely delivered. But some worry that the bank is abandoning global ambitions in favour of a return to its Asian roots at the cost of future growth. How will Elhedery address the lack of growth? Banking editor Ortenca Aliaj investigates.

Take a break from the news

To celebrate the 350th anniversary of St Paul’s, the FT’s Charlie Bibby was allowed unprecedented access to its inner workings. Our chief photographer reveals the unsung heroes who make the world-famous London cathedral tick.