Not Everyone’s Happy With Trump’s 90-Day Pause on Tariffs | Invesloan.com

Good morning. In a scorching new court filing, lawyers for Sam Altman laid out his version of events that led to his breakup with OpenAI cofounder Elon Musk. It’s the most detailed account yet of Altman’s side of what went down.

In today’s big story, President Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on sweeping tariffs was felt worldwide — with some stakeholders benefiting more than others.

What’s on deck

Markets: A recession is starting right now, a crash-calling strategist says.

Tech: There’s now an AI that can streamline visa applications for immigration lawyers and paralegals.

Business: Hard hit by tariffs, Americans are turning to Goodwill and eBay.

But first, not everyone is happy.

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The big story

A 90-day pause

People were getting queasy. Trump acknowledged it himself on Wednesday following ominous moves in the bond market.

It was enough for him to announce a 90-day pause on the implementation of most of his tariffs — one week after his so-called “Liberation Day.”

Jaws dropped and stocks soared. The Dow surged by almost 3,000 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 12% for its best day since 2001 and its second-largest increase ever.

“This was the only way to rewrite the rules of global trade. Once again, Trump was right about everything!,” former PayPal executive David Sacks wrote on X.

Billionaire Mark Cuban wasn’t as positive: “What some people aren’t factoring into their analysis is the reality that companies were buying tons of inventory to beat the tariffs. That’s cash taken from being able to invest or hire.” He added that there could be job cuts as a result.

BI has rounded up reactions from business leaders across the political spectrum. Read them here.

There were winners and losers.

Winners:

• Airlines: United Airlines’ share price surged 26% on Wednesday while Delta Air Lines’ stock rose around 23%.
• Semiconductor companies: Although semiconductors themselves were exempt from tariffs, other components integral to products that use chips could have been impacted. Nvidia’s share price rose by around 18%.
• Tesla and Elon Musk: Tesla’s stock rose 22%, and Musk’s net worth was estimated to have increased by roughly $36 billion.

Losers:

• China: This is the big one. China was excluded from the pause on tariffs. To make matters worse, Trump said he would also raise the duties on China following the country’s retaliatory levies — Trump said the new total tariff rate for imports from China would be 125%.

• Amazon: While the company’s stock price rose around 11%, some analysts say Amazon is more exposed to tariffs on China than many other companies. It could spell trouble.

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  3 things in markets

1. A recession is imminent. That’s according to the market’s biggest bear, Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research. Berezin predicted in 2024 that Trump would start a trade war that would send markets into meltdown. So far, so accurate. He said on Wednesday that spending patterns spell bad news for the US economy — and Trump’s tariff reversal doesn’t change that. Here’s why.

2. Dealmaking stalls under tariff uncertainty. Trump’s reversal may only extend Wall Street’s pain, as buyers and sellers wait for clarity. “We’re going to have three more months of paralysis,” said Alan Johnson, a finance industry compensation consultant. BI spoke with bankers and private equity executives inside the M&A lull.

3. The markets are swinging wildly, but so far, the financial plumbing is intact. Market volatility and trading volumes are sky-high. However, the infrastructure allowing asset managers, central banks, and others to trade, redeem, and liquidate assets has held steady.

3 things in tech

1. A Tesla cofounder’s new black gold. JB Straubel is building North America’s biggest battery recycling operation in the Nevada desert. His company aims to produce a material critical for EV batteries without relying too much on an international supply chain. BI visited its campus.

2. New from legal tech: AI-assisted visa applications. The startup Parley uses AI to streamline visa applications by synthesizing uploaded information into draft applications. The tech has gained traction amid heightened scrutiny and directives affecting the immigration process.

3. Nissan wants to update its self-driving tech. It’s the first automaker to use Microsoft and Nvidia-backed AI startup Wayve’s assisted driving tech. While Waymo and Tesla focus on fully driverless cars, Wayve is developing advanced driver-assistance systems, where cars use cameras and AI to help drivers.

3 things in business

1. The resale economy is about to pop off. Secondhand shopping has been gaining steam for a while, especially among younger consumers. Now, in an uncertain economy, it’s got another advantage by being tariff-free. The great American yard sale is nigh.

2. It’s not so easy to go 100% “Made in America.” Trump says his tariffs will cause more goods to be made in America, but small business owners told BI it’s not that simple. Many companies that assemble products in the US still rely on other countries for labor, facilities, or materials.

3. A pullback in ad spending could hit retail hardest. Tariff turmoil may chill ad spending overall, but not all sectors would be affected equally. Retail and e-commerce could face the biggest spending cuts, according to a recent survey of advertisers.

In other news

What’s happening today

• CPI data is released.
• The Masters begins in Augusta, Georgia.
• “The Great Gatsby” turns 100. Happy birthday, old sport.

The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York (on parental leave). Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Nathan Rennolds, editor, in London. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. Amanda Yen, associate editor, in New York. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Elizabeth Casolo, fellow, in Chicago.