Airline stocks had a solid two weeks after a series of guidance updates came in stronger than anticipated. The outlook for the sector has improved amid momentum, with near-term bookings and lower jet fuel prices providing some margin relief.
American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) expects Q3 jet fuel prices to average $2.55 to $2.75 per gallon. The company had no fuel hedging contracts in place as of June 30. Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) anticipates Q3 jet fuel prices to average $2.60 to $2.70 per gallon. The Dallas-based carrier disclosed previously that it would hedge a maximum of 57% of its fuel needs in Q3 and 59% in Q4. Alaska Air Lines (ALK) disclosed that it expects jet fuel prices to average $2.85 to $2.95 per gallon in the current quarter. ALK suspended its fuel hedging program in Q4 of last year. All the company’s oil positions are now call options to cap the cost of crude oil with its jet fuel purchases. For its part, JetBlue Airways (NASDAQ:JBLU) sees an average fuel price of $2.82 to $2.97 per gallon in Q3. JBLU has 20% of its fuel needs hedged for Q3 and 5% hedged in Q4.
Meanwhile, Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) guided for an average fuel price in Q3 of $2.60 to $2.80 per gallon. While Delta (DAL) has its own refinery in Pennsylvania that it uses for a significant portion of its jet fuel needs, the Atlanta-based company also purchases jet fuel from traditional oil companies and refineries, adjusting its sourcing strategy based on market conditions and fuel prices to optimize costs and ensure a reliable supply for its extensive flight operations. During an investor conference this week (transcript), Delta (DAL) management updated on the cost wildcard, with fuel prices at a near-term low. Delta President Glen Hauenstein said that when the company has fuel prices heading down and revenues heading up, that it is a “pretty good indication” that the airline industry is in a solid position. However, it was observed that there is some giveback on fares as consumers and competitors react to the new backdrop. At the same conference, United Air Lines (NASDAQ:UAL) pointed out the fuel prices may still need to go lower before the industry starts to add capacity again because there are still many unprofitable routes, despite the relief on fuel costs.
Regarding air fares, the industry has already passed on at least some of the benefit of lower fuel costs to consumers. Airline fares in the U.S. were down 1.3% in August compared to a year ago on an unadjusted basis. On a month-to-month comparison, airfares were up 3.9% in August after being down 1.6% in July and seeing a 5.0% drop in June, according to data compiled by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Air fares had dropped for five months in a row before the reversal in August. Looking ahead, booking app Hopper estimated domestic airfares for September will be down slightly compared to a year ago.
Bank of America recalculated EPS estimates across the airline sector after factoring in the recent guidance updates, lower fuel prices, and the pricing backdrop. Every carrier saw its Q3 EPS estimates increased, with the most dramatic being JetBlue (JBLU) pushed up to a profit of $0.21 per share from -$0.49 and Allegiant Travel (ALGT) boosted to -$2.18 from -$2.83.
Airline YTD share price scorecard: American Airlines (AAL) -22%, Delta Air Lines (DAL) +12%, Southwest Airlines (LUV) -1%, United Airlines (UAL) +22%, JetBlue Airways (JBLU) +6%, Hawaiian Holdings (HA) +21%, Alaska Air Group (ALK) +7%, Allegiant Travel (ALGT) -50%, Spirit Airlines (SAVE) -84%, Mesa Airlines (MESA) +28%, SkyWest (SKYW) +50%, Sun Country Airlines (SNCY) -28%, and Frontier Group (ULCC) -21%.
The only airline stock with a Seeking Alpha Quant Rating of Strong Buy is SkyWest (SKYW), while Delta (DAL) ranks second based on quantitative analysis.