Trump’s Ukraine and Middle East peace efforts are unravelling | Invesloan.com

Today’s agenda: Fed rate decision; Nvidia’s new AI chip; X worth $44bn again; Big Read on Goldman succession plans; and Martin Wolf on a “Mar-a-Lago accord”

Good morning. We start by taking stock of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and what they mean for US President Donald Trump’s pledges to bring peace.

What’s happening: Vladimir Putin rebuffed the US push for a full ceasefire in his phone call with Trump yesterday and did not signal a willingness to compromise on hardline demands. The Russian leader instead ordered his military to refrain from striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure for 30 days. Their call came just hours after the collapse of a truce in Gaza, with Israel launching a wave of air strikes that killed hundreds of Palestinians as it resumed “fighting with force” against Hamas.

What this means: Critics say the impatient Trump is struggling to end the wars because he fails to understand the complexities of the players involved. One expert said his pressure campaign on Kyiv quickly handed too much leverage to Moscow, while on Gaza, Trump rapidly changed tack to back Israeli strikes after only recently holding direct talks with Hamas. His badgering of crucial US allies, including on trade, has also reduced America’s reach and diplomatic clout, said critics. Read more on how Trump’s peace efforts are unravelling.

And here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:

• Fed decision: The US Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates on hold today, even as new data shows American consumers expect inflation to soar.

• Olympics: The International Olympic Committee gathers in Greece for a three-day meeting to pick a new chair.

• Results: General Mills, Prudential and Swatch report.

Join FT experts next Thursday for a subscriber-only webinar, as they discuss Ukraine’s future with Russia’s full-scale invasion entering its fourth year. Register for free.

Five more top stories

1. Nvidia has unveiled the next generation of its artificial intelligence chips as chief executive Jensen Huang reassures investors that AI spending will continue to grow. The new chips can be used to train much larger AI models and serve up more sophisticated responses to a greater number of users, the company said. More on the new Vera Rubin chips from Nvidia’s GTC conference.

2. Exclusive: X’s valuation has soared back to $44bn, the amount Elon Musk paid in 2022 to buy the social media site then called Twitter. The figure came out of a so-called secondary deal this month in which investors exchanged existing stakes in the company, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Here’s more on the sharp turnaround.

• Starlink: US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick touted Musk’s satellite internet network for a $42bn rural broadband programme, raising new conflict of interest questions.

3. Exclusive: China is delaying approval for carmaker BYD to build a plant in Mexico, after plans were first announced in 2023. People familiar with the matter said Beijing was worried that the smart car technology developed by China’s biggest electric-vehicle maker could leak across the border to the US.

4. The US chief justice has issued a rare public rebuke after Trump threatened to impeach a federal judge who tried to block deportations of alleged Venezuelan gang members. John Roberts said the president’s remarks were “not an appropriate response” to disagreements over judicial rulings.

5. Citigroup has cut bonuses for 250 top employees under a programme that tied their pay to a turnaround effort aimed at boosting shareholder returns and fixing compliance shortcomings at the US bank. The so-called transformation bonus programme was put in place three years ago after a high-profile blunder in which Citi accidentally wired $900mn to a group of hedge funds.

The Big Read

Many on Wall Street regard John Waldron as heir apparent to Goldman Sachs chief executive David Solomon. Interviews with more than 20 of his current and former colleagues, clients and other people familiar with Waldron’s career paint a picture of a well-liked client whisperer with a relentless work ethic and ability to build bridges between the bank’s different businesses. But can he thrive without Solomon’s guidance?

We’re also reading . . . 

• Bundesbank: Germany’s central bank is using an in-house AI tool to prove their Eurozone counterpart is being too aggressive in cutting interest rates.

• A ‘Mar-a-Lago accord’? Trump wants to protect domestic manufacturing and hold the dollar as the reserve currency, writes Martin Wolf. Will it work?

• The UK’s ‘quangos’: The prime minister’s push to slash non-departmental bodies follows in a long line of “red tape challenges” faced by previous governments.

• Stock vigilantes: It is time to give up on the idea that Trump will change his policies if stock markets tumble, writes Katie Martin.

Chart of the day

Eurozone stocks have benefited after investors made the “biggest ever” cut to their US equity allocations in March, prompted by fears over the American economy. Trump’s erratic trade war has prompted a heavy Wall Street sell-off and a race to pour money into so-called haven assets such as US government debt.

Take a break from the news . . . 

If you’re in Lagos and wondering where to have your next working lunch or simply grab a quick snack, FT Globetrotter has you covered with its insider’s guide to restaurants that really mean business in west Africa’s financial hub.