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With the government shutdown now in day four and no compromise in sight, a federal budget expert says two dates could send things “spiraling out of control”: the first day essential federal workers go without pay and the first day service members miss a paycheck.
The next federal worker pay date is Oct. 10 and the next pay date for the military is Oct. 15, according to the Defense Finance and Accounting Service and U.S. General Services Administration.
Richard Stern, director of the Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget at the Heritage Foundation, explained that while both sides are blaming the other for the shutdown, neither wants to be responsible for essential government workers or the troops to miss out on pay, making those dates central to ending the shutdown.
Stern explained that while Democratic leaders are attempting to blame the GOP for the shutdown, it was their decision to reject a compromise temporary spending bill that shut down the government.
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When military service members and essential government workers start missing out on paychecks, the pressure on Democrats to end the government shutdown will mount, one expert said. (Aaron Favila/AP Photo; Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images and AP)
Democrats have insisted that any agreement to keep the government funded must extend tax credits for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) beyond the end of this year, a provision Republicans rejected.
Some Democrats have even admitted it was their decision to close the government. In a viral video, Rep. Shri Thanedar, D-Mich., said, “We got to make sure Americans have the healthcare that they need, and if that means we’ve got to shut the government down, so be it.”
Former Politico reporter Rachel Bade also went on the record recently, saying, “The pressure is just going to skyrocket on Democrats.”
“I mean, it’s not just some people who live paycheck-to-paycheck. Most people cannot go without getting a subsequent paycheck. Like, that’s just the reality of things — troops not getting paid,” said Bade. “So, I think over the next, you know, week or so, if it lasts that long, we’re just going to have this … gut-wrenching reminder of what shutdowns mean.”
Stern likened the Democrats’ actions to deciding to “stomp [their] feet and make a dramatic situation out of it.”
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Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and most Senate Democrats are unwilling to budge on their position as the government shutdown rolls into a third day. (Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“Republicans passed a clean seven-week funding bill. They offered them the ability to fund the government for seven weeks and continue negotiations,” he said. “It was superfluous. It really was gratuitous of them to say, no, we demand the shutdown.”
“Democrats are asking for a restoration of so-called foreign aid. But a lot of that is money for transgender surgeries and abortions overseas,” Stern continued. “They want more money to go to NPR and PBS, that spread left-wing propaganda. They want other grant money that goes to left-wing causes. But the big ticket item is they want one and a half trillion dollars of extension of a welfare program that largely hands money to very well-off Americans, and included in that, they want to remove anti-fraud provisions that were passed in the one big, beautiful bill. Not only would that increase fraud, but it will actually effectively expand these welfare benefits to legal aliens. So, it’s hard to understand where they’re coming from, but that’s what they’re asking.”
“So, at the end of the day, I think they’re going to get the blame that I think they deserve.”
President Donald Trump and Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought have indicated the administration could use mandatory pots of money provided in the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act to ensure that service members, Border Patrol agents and other Homeland Security personnel paychecks are not interrupted, which could serve as a lifeline for Democrats, Stern noted.
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President Donald Trump speaks to a gathering of top U.S. military commanders at Marine Corps Base Quantico, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025, in Quantico, Virginia. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Even if this is the case, the White House noted shortly before the shutdown began that the government closure would jeopardize military pay, critical care for veterans, firefighter pay, disaster relief funding and many other programs important to Americans.
Either way, Stern said that the longer the shutdown continues, the greater the danger that funding can fail, and essential services start buckling under the pressure.
One example of essential federal workers who could be impacted by an extended government shutdown is air traffic controllers and other FAA personnel, who do not receive paychecks during government shutdowns despite being required to work to keep the nation’s flight schedules safe and on time. Though they are eventually paid when the government reopens, extended periods of time without a paycheck lead to stress on both the workers and the overall flight system.
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The U.S. Capitol Building at sunset. (Fox News Digital/Emma Woodhead)
In 2019, on the 35th day of a government shutdown, ten air traffic controllers called in sick in Virginia and Florida, triggering ground stops at LaGuardia Airport in New York and cascading delays at Newark, Philadelphia and Atlanta.
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“This gets to the question of when do things start spiraling out of control?” said Stern, adding, “Some of these program expirations, as the shutdown drags on, might put more of a fire under Congress on both sides to reach a deal, whatever it means.”
Fox News Digital’s Gabriel Hays contributed to this report.
