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The writer is associate professor of political science at Providence College and author of ‘Extraction: The Frontiers of Green Capitalism’
The so-called lithium triangle — the Andean desert plateau sweeping from northern Chile and Argentina to southern Bolivia — contains over half of the world’s resources of lithium, an essential mineral for the energy transition. Just a few years ago, Argentina, Bolivia and Chile were all governed by the left. Today, only one of those countries still is, and its days are numbered. When José Antonio Kast assumes power in Chile on March 11, all three will be led by centre to rightwing presidents.
It’s a stunning reversal of political fortune with major implications for critical minerals. Among the region’s heads of state in recent years, there was talk of a “lithium Opec” to co-ordinate the sector, the return of resource nationalism and the rise of state-led green development — intermingled with the hope of social benefit within environmental limits. In stark contrast, Kast, Argentina’s Javier Milei and Rodrigo Paz in Bolivia have vowed to entice foreign investment, and are turning to US President Donald Trump for bilateral deals.
But in the often opaque realm of resource extraction, appearances can be deceiving. These rightwing leaders are aligned with Trump, but China’s economic pull could well prove stronger. Avowed commitments to free markets and private investment are anachronistic in an era of state capitalism, and in sectors pervaded by the logic of national security. And in the peripheries where mining occurs, communities are no more tolerant of uncontrolled extraction than they were before these administrations took power. The stark realities of geopolitical and social conflict will shape lithium governance.
Milei is the most tightly allied with Trump. He signed a trade deal that reduces tariffs on US agricultural exports and prioritises American mining companies over “market manipulating economies or enterprises”. While the phrase could easily apply to Trump himself, who has taken equity stakes in several firms and stalled $35bn worth of energy generation on a whim, the implied target here is surely China. But Chinese presence in the Argentine economy is growing rapidly, overwhelmingly focused on infrastructure, energy and lithium. These are strategic sectors characterised by durable, place-based assets unlikely to be undone by a vague pledge to favour US firms.
To the north, Bolivia’s Paz is re-establishing diplomacy with the US, which has in effect been on ice since 2008 — but he has simultaneously reinforced economic ties with China and Russia, promising to respect the lithium deals with Chinese and Russian companies inked under his socialist predecessor. This came as a surprise, given that during his election campaign he promised to closely review both contracts (which are controversial and await full congressional approval).
Notwithstanding Chile’s prominent place in the global lithium market, Kast does not yet have a clearly developed plan. He ran a hardline anti-immigration and law and order campaign, with unclear implications for economic policy. But we can speculate based on his political lineage, which reaches back to the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. Although it liked to tout its free-market credentials, that regime pursued an interventionist industrial policy to induce foreign capital investment in export-led growth in sectors such as salmon, forestry and mining. The potential parallels to today are obvious.
Latin America has long pumped all manner of minerals into the world economy. And this trend will continue, given its enviable deposits of copper, lithium and rare earths. But the region also leads the world in the murder of environmental defenders — just as it is home to the most defiant activism against untrammelled extraction.
While they attempt to shield their countries from the forces of geopolitical competition, these rightwing governments are also likely to fan the flames of local conflict over lithium.
