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Lone wolf attackers inspired by extremist ideologies pose the most likely terrorist threat to the U.S. homeland, according to the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.
The 34-page document was released by Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard Wednesday, who testified at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on worldwide threats alongside other key military and Trump administration officials.
The 2025 threat assessment similarly warned that terrorist threats to the U.S. increasingly come from individuals acting alone or in small groups.
The new report says ISIS and al-Qaeda remain intent on targeting the United States, but their ability to plan and execute complex attacks has been significantly degraded over time.
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(From left to right) Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Kash Patel, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Lt. Gen. James Adams III, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, Army Lt. Gen. William Hartman and Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe testify during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on worldwide threats at the Hart Senate Office Building on March 18, 2026, in Washington, DC. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
Officials warn that individuals radicalized online are increasingly carrying out or attempting attacks with little direction, often using simple tactics and requiring minimal coordination.
“Jihadist narratives that address personal grievances may be attractive to individuals seeking validation of violent desires or moral clarity, even if they lack familiarity with Islam. Such content normalizes intolerance of other beliefs and persons and attracts followers to Islamism,” the threat report reads in part. “Anti-Western and anti-Semitic narratives probably influence Muslim youths facing integration challenges or who are disaffected by the West’s role abroad, including with the Israel–HAMAS conflict.”
It notes that al-Qaeda and ISIS have expanded in recent years primarily through local conflicts in Africa, where some of their largest and most violent affiliates are now based.
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Soldiers of the Somalia National Army walk near the frontlines at Sabiid, a town recaptured from the al-Qaeda linked Al-Shabaab militants, in Somalia’s lower-Shabelle region on Nov. 11, 2025. (Tony Karumba/AFP via Getty Images)
The intelligence community is continuing to monitor developments in the Middle East, particularly how the terrorism landscape may evolve following Operation Epic Fury, according to the assessment.
DNI Gabbard told lawmakers on Capitol Hill that stricter border enforcement has helped limit terrorist access to the U.S. and lowered the risk of potential attacks.
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Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testifies during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on worldwide threats at the Hart Senate Office Building on March 18, 2026, in Washington, D.C. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)
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“Since January, U.S. officials have only had a handful of encounters at our borders with individuals associated with terrorist groups. This is a positive trend,” she said. “However, our interagency coordinated efforts to continue to identify, locate, and remove known or suspected terrorists who may already be in the United States continues with vigilance.”
“In 2025, there were at least three Islamist terrorist attacks in the United States. Law enforcement disrupted at least 15 US-based Islamist terrorist plotters. Roughly half of last year’s disrupted plotters had some online contact with Islamist terrorists,” Gabbard added.
