A US Army soldier was indicted Thursday on charges he used classified military information to make bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket, winning more than $400,000.
Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a Special Forces master sergeant who worked out of Fort Bragg in North Carolina, was charged with felonies including wire fraud and violating the Commodity Exchange Act, federal prosecutors in Manhattan announced.
Van Dyke, prosecutors said in a statement, “was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve,” the military operation to capture Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, “and had access to sensitive, nonpublic, classified information about that operation.”
Prosecutors say he used that information to place 13 bets between December 27, 2025, and January 2, 2026 — wagering more than $33,000 — in which he had an affirmative position on the question of whether the US would take action in Venezuela or against Maduro.
ADAM GRAY/Reuters
He withdrew his winnings — a profit of $409,881 — the day of the US raid on Venezuela and deposited them first in a foreign cryptocurrency vault and then an online brokerage account, the indictment alleges. The feds say he also took steps to conceal his identity after speculation about the large, curiously timed trades began circulating, and asked Polymarket to delete his account using a phony excuse.
Asked by a reporter if he was concerned about federal employees betting on prediction markets, President Donald Trump asked if Van Dyke had wagered that the US would get Maduro. When told that was the case, Trump said, “That’s like Pete Rose betting on his own team,” referring to the Cincinnati Reds manager who was banned from baseball for gambling. “If he bet against his team, that would be no good.”
No attorney for Van Dyke, 37, who has been an active-duty soldier since 2008, was listed in the court docket. A family member did not respond to a request for comment.
In a post on X, Polymarket said it tipped off the feds to Van Dyke’s trades.
“Last month, we published our enhanced market integrity rules to combat insider trading. When we identified a user trading on classified government information, we referred the matter to the DOJ & cooperated with their investigation,” the company wrote. “Insider trading has no place on Polymarket. Today’s arrest is proof the system works.”
Insider trading is a major issue for prediction markets, which allow people to buy and sell contracts —in other words, trade — on the outcome of real-world events.
On Wednesday, Polymarket rival Kalshi said it had suspended and fined three candidates for political office for making trades related to their own elections. In February, Kalshi banned and fined a MrBeast editor, who it said had traded on markets related to YouTube streaming.
Van Dyke faces a far harsher penalty if convicted: The most serious charge against him, wire fraud, carries up to 20 years in prison.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction markets, filed a civil complaint against Van Dyke in federal court.
“I have been crystal clear that anyone who engages in fraud, manipulation, or insider trading in any of our markets will face the full force of the law,” Chairman Michael Selig said in a statement. “The defendant was entrusted with confidential information about US operations and yet took action that endangered US national security and put the lives of American service members in harm’s way.”
Selig has defended prediction markets, saying in February, “It’s something that I think is valuable to society.”
