While my colleagues will be locked into what’s going on outside the arena, I’ll be sweating my betting action in the Indiana Fever (18-10) at Portland Fire (11-17) Friday at the Moda Center at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Reportedly, there will be “protect women in sports” activists, and probably LGBTQ+ activists, rallying in support, or opposition, of Indiana backup SG Sophie Cunningham’s recent comments like “young girls in sport who shouldn’t have to go against biological men”.
SHOULD NBA COMMISSIONER ADAM SILVER STEP IN OVER THE WNBA’S HANDLING OF THE SOPHIE CUNNINGHAM SITUATION?
Indiana Fever superstars Sophie Cunningham and Caitlin Clark are arguably the two most popular players in the WNBA. (NBAE via Getty Images)
Again, I’m not here to discuss this hot-button issue. Frankly, I’m motivated by self-interest, which includes getting page views for this article by name-dropping Caitlin Clark and mentioning the drama, and more importantly, cashing my Fever-Fire bet.
That said, Indiana is an expensive -7.5 (-120) favorite and -325 on the moneyline at DraftKings, and the total for this game is 187.5. Without further ado, let’s discuss the stuff that really matters. At least to me.
Best Bet: Indiana Fever -7.5, up to -8.5
These teams split the first two meetings this season with the home team winning and covering both. The Fever have won eight of their last 10 games, including four straight. Portland, on the other hand, is just 3-7 over its past 10 games and has lost three in a row.
Indiana Fever All-Star Caitlin Clark shoots over Portland Fire SG Sarah Ashlee Barker and C Luisa Geiselsoder at Moda Center in Oregon. (Ali Gradischer/Getty Images)
There are “probable” tags on two key players for Indiana on its injury report: Clark and C Aliyah Boston. Clark leads the Fever in assists per game and is their highest usage player. Boston is their third-leading scorer and leading rebounder. The Fire are missing sharpshooting SG Sarah Ashlee Barker.
Even though Clark and Boston are expected to play Friday, this line hints at their possible absence. Indiana was an -11.5 favorite in Portland earlier this season with Clark and Boston available.
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Coincidentally, or maybe not, Clark played in Indy’s 100-84 loss to Portland and missed the Fever’s 90-73 blowout win over the Fire. She had her worst game of the season vs. the Fire, scoring just 6 points on 1-for-7 shooting in a season-low 21:45 minutes.
Yet, Barker’s absence is bigger than the market is accounting for. Especially since the Fire have the third-highest 3-point attempt rate in the WNBA. Barker has the second-highest on/off net rating on the team at +7.0 while shooting 50.2% from the field and 40.0% from behind the arc.
Caitlin Clark was not prominently featured in a new ESPN documentary about the WNBA. (Getty Images)
Also, because of Clark’s popularity, Indiana All-Star guard Kelsey Mitchell is underrated or overlooked. Mitchell averages a team-best 23.5 points per game. If Clark or Boston gets scratched Friday, Mitchell’s usage should increase and that ain’t a bad thing.
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Finally, the “battle for possessions” is the most important thing in professional basketball and the Fever has a better rebounding rate on both ends of the floor. In fact, Portland has the worst defensive rebounding rate in the WNBA.
Prediction: Fever 102, Fire 89
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