Will the AI future be closed or open, or a mixture of both? Morgan Stanley studied these three scenarios and found that some companies will win no matter what happens.
In a research note this week, the bank’s strategists laid out three possible paths for the AI market over the next few years.
The winners change depending on which scenario plays out, but one theme stays remarkably consistent: The companies building the computing backbone that runs AI models and services will remain in a strong position regardless.
Closed wins
The first scenario is one where closed, proprietary AI models keep their lead. Companies continue paying a handful of frontier AI labs because they offer the best performance, security, and ease of use.
(The bank doesn’t officially cover OpenAI and Anthropic, because they’re still private companies, but I suspect these would be the main winners here).
This outcome would also favor major cloud providers including Amazon and Google, along with companies supplying the chips, networking equipment, and electricity needed to run massive AI systems, such as Nvidia and Bloom Energy.
A hybrid world
The second possibility is a hybrid world, which Morgan Stanley views as a realistic outcome. In my experience, these more nuanced outcomes are usually what ends up happening.
In this scenario, businesses would use premium, closed AI models for the hardest jobs while relying on cheaper, customizable models for routine work. That would spread AI across public clouds, private data centers, and company-owned hardware, creating opportunities for cloud providers, infrastructure software, and cybersecurity firms.
Winners would include hyperscale cloud providers such as Amazon, Google and Microsoft. Software companies including Datadog, Palantir, Crowdstrike, Okta, and ServiceNow would also do well in this world. Oh, and Nvidia, too.
Open wins
The third scenario assumes open models become just as capable and easy to use as proprietary ones. Lower costs would encourage companies to deploy AI much more broadly, with more workloads running inside their own data centers or on local devices instead of centralized cloud services.
That would benefit makers of enterprise hardware, security software, and so-called edge computing equipment which runs smaller systems closer to users.
Microsoft would still do well in this world, according to the Morgan Stanley strategists. But new winners would be Chinese AI labs and China’s tech giants, such as MiniMax, Z.ai, Alibaba and Tencent.
Dell, HP, and Apple would also thrive in this scenario because they specialize in making devices that can run AI models and services closer to end users. Oh, and Nvidia wins again here.
Constant winners
Despite these very different outcomes, Morgan Stanley found some clear constants.
You’ve already spotted the clearest winner: Nvidia appears among the biggest beneficiaries in all three scenarios, reflecting the continued need for AI servers and networking no matter which type of software wins.
The cloud giants also feature prominently, although their rankings shift depending on whether proprietary or open models gain the upper hand. Microsoft stands out in the open-model scenario, while Amazon and Google are strongest if proprietary models remain dominant or the market settles into a hybrid approach.
Morgan Stanley’s broader conclusion is that the debate over which type of AI model ultimately wins may matter less than many investors think.
If AI adoption continues to accelerate, the companies supplying the infrastructure that powers it could prosper in almost any future.
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