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A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. Those words are widely attributed to Alexander Tytler, the Scottish judge and historian who lived from 1747 to 1813. There is, however, some debate over the attribution. Historians and researchers have questioned whether Tytler actually wrote the passage in the form in which it is commonly quoted, whether he expressed a similar idea that was later expanded and attributed to him, or whether the passage originated elsewhere. The exact authorship may be debatable. The warning itself is not.
Here is the prophetic quote:
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.”
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This is no idle warning. Look at the United States today and the pattern is hard to miss. This is exactly what is happening today.
Our founders were statesmen who sacrificed much to create a system focused on the common good. They had businesses, farms, and families and they risked everything to build a limited government unlike any the world had seen. Today we are governed largely by professional politicians, many of whom have never signed the front of a paycheck or run a business. Their careers are spent in government, and they are focused on re-election, promising voters increasingly more, but not paying for these programs.
The late Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, a practicing physician, saw this coming. In his book The Debt Bomb, written fifteen years ago, he warned of the fiscal path we were on. The problems he described are here.
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Our federal debt is approaching $40 trillion and will cross that threshold soon. It has grown by roughly $3 trillion in the past year, even though the annual deficit is about $2 trillion. Debt relative to the economy stands at about 125% of GDP, higher than after World War II when it peaked at 114%. After the war, we exercised financial restraint with the debt growing at less than 1% per year for 20 years. The economy tripled in size, the ratio declined to under 50%, everyone gained. Now the trajectory points to a higher debt and a higher ratio. Current projections, which assume no new wars, recessions, or major programs, put the debt at $64 trillion in a decade. On top of that sit roughly $86 trillion in unfunded obligations for Social Security and Medicare, promises for which the money does not exist.
What are we doing to ourselves? Have we lost our minds? Do we still have a basic understanding of economics and financial prudence? A new wave of voices demands ever more expensive programs without a realistic plan to pay for them.
“Tax the rich” they say. Every serious economist who has examined the numbers knows that approach cannot even close today’s deficits, let alone fund the additional spending proposed. Reality requires growth-killing taxes on everyone if the spending continues to grow.
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Limited government and financial responsibility produced the richest and strongest nation the world has known, delivering a standard of living that outpaced other Western countries. Do we want to follow their path of lower growth and lower living standards? Of course not. We must control spending if we want to keep growing and avoid going over the fiscal cliff. At the moment that is exactly where current policy is taking us.
The warning signs are not only in the numbers. They are also visible in a culture which demands more from government. A free society depends on citizens who understand that rights come with responsibilities, that prosperity is created through work and innovation, not government programs. When a nation forgets those lessons, the government starts taking control of our lives.
America has faced enormous challenges before and has always recovered when citizens returned to the principles of individual responsibility, economic freedom, and constitutional restraint. The same nation that defeated tyranny, built the world’s most dynamic economy, and lifted millions out of poverty still can correct course. But doing so requires honesty about our challenges and the courage to make difficult choices before circumstances force terrible economic choices upon us.
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Alexander Tytler’s apocryphal warning described the cycle with unsettling accuracy. We are today living out the later stages described. Only citizens can interrupt it. Get the facts. Demand that Congress restore fiscal sanity. Together, we citizens can prove this prediction wrong.
