CLARITY Act odds on Kalshi for the bill to become law in 2026 stood at 25% on September 13, down from 82% in February. At the same time, a separate Kalshi market put the probability of a U.S. Senate vote before October 1 at 94%.
The difference reflects two distinct questions: whether the Senate will take up the measure and whether the bill will complete the full legislative process and be signed into law, with a full-blown crypto bull market hinging on its passage.
The Senate is due to consider the measure on September 15. The Kalshi concerns whether H.R. 3633, formerly known as the CLARITY Act, will be passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026. A vote on the motion to proceed is an earlier procedural stage, rather than final enactment.
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CLARITY Act Odds: A Vote Is Not the Same as a Law
More than $8M has been wagered on Kalshi’s contract covering the bill’s enactment. The market’s implied probability fell from 82% in February to 16% on September 7.
Views on the Senate threshold differ. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said in a CNBC interview that he was rather optimistic about obtaining 60 votes and characterized the negotiations as having delivered most of what both sides wanted.
Other estimates cited in the source report were more cautious. Ian Katz of Capital Alpha Partners lowered his estimate of the bill’s chances of passage from about 40% to 25%.
Galaxy Digital’s estimate in August was 10%. These assessments, like the prediction-market prices, address the prospects for legislation that must move beyond a procedural Senate vote.
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Why 53 Republican Seats Isn’t Enough
In other CLARITY Act odds news, September 15 is expected to center on a motion to proceed, a step that authorizes debate on the bill rather than passing it outright. Supporters need 60 favorable votes. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, so at least seven Democrats would need to join them to overcome cloture.
The CLARITY Act passed the House of Representatives in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote. The bill is intended to establish a federal framework for the U.S. crypto market.
Under the proposal described in the source report, the CFTC would receive exclusive authority over spot markets for digital commodities, while the SEC would retain oversight of certain securities offerings and crypto exchange activities.
Three areas of disagreement remain. Several Democrats, including Kirsten Gillibrand, are seeking a binding ban on public officials holding crypto assets. Traditional banks have resisted compromise over stablecoin rewards.
Lawmakers also remain divided over protections for decentralized finance protocols and non-custodial software developers, with concerns that some language could create regulatory loopholes.
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What Happens After September 15
HUGE: Anonymous traders have bet over $1 MILLION that crypto's biggest regulatory bill will FAIL, days before its make-or-break vote.
The CLARITY Act faces a Senate vote on September 15, but only to start debate, not to pass.
It needs 60 votes to proceed, yet Republicans hold… pic.twitter.com/g13s8TapC8
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) September 6, 2026
If the motion to proceed receives the necessary votes, the legislation would move into formal debate. The outstanding disagreements over ethics, stablecoin rewards, and protections for DeFi and non-custodial developers would still need to be addressed. If cloture does not clear, the bill would not advance through that procedural step.
The legislative route is not the only avenue for crypto policy. The SEC and CFTC are already pursuing work on crypto regulation without waiting for Congress.
Under Paul Atkins, the SEC has abandoned certain enforcement actions and outlined a taxonomy of crypto assets, according to the source report. The CFTC is working on issues involving leveraged exchanges and DeFi.
Regulatory action can provide a framework outside legislation, but agency rules can also be changed by a future administration. The September 15 proceeding, therefore, remains important as a gauge of whether the CLARITY Act can begin Senate debate, while the prediction markets highlight the separate question of whether it can become law in 2026.
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