Arrival of US tariffs set to embolden Canada’s new chief | Invesloan.com

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Put on your party clothes because you have a short window of excess to enjoy before it’s time for an extended period of hair shirts and humility. No, not Lent — although that will be happening on Wednesday after the traditional craziness of Carnival, Mardi Gras and Pancake Day (delete according to your nationality) on Tuesday — this is the week that Donald Trump’s beloved new tariffs come into play for neighbours Canada and Mexico.

The US president will on Tuesday address a joint session of Congress outlining his agenda, his first such speech since his inauguration in January. Trump’s announcement last Thursday that he will push ahead with the levies on America’s two neighbours, and put an additional 10 per cent tariff on China for good measure, has already shaken global markets, so expect more volatility this week. Click here for a full list of Trump’s tariff moves.

Ironically, one of the beneficiaries of Trump’s tariff tirades has been Canada’s ruling Liberal party. This gives added impetus to another event at the end of the week: the vote to find a replacement for Justin Trudeau. It shows what a long time a few weeks are in politics, especially with Trump back in the White House. Trudeau resigned less than two months ago as prime minister amid plunging poll ratings for his party. Thanks to Trump, his tariff threats and that “cherished 51st state” comment, the winner of the Liberal party vote on Sunday will not just become prime minister, but will gain an increased opportunity of winning the country’s next general election.

The frontrunners to replace Trudeau are former Bank of England governor Mark Carney and former Canadian finance minister, and ex-FT deputy editor, Chrystia Freeland. Carney is godfather to one of Freeland’s kids, so this is not exactly a fierce rivalry, and some believe they’ll work together regardless of who becomes leader. One difference is that Carney is expected to call an early election, if or when, he wins, while Freeland has been vague on the issue.

An Ipsos poll released last week showed the party had edged ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s opposition Conservatives, with the support of 38 per cent of decided voters — up 10 points since February 6 and the first time the Liberals have led in this poll in four years. For an FT take on the data to prove that Canada very much exists, with its own identity, read this.

In Beijing, the annual meeting of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, a high-profile but largely ceremonial advisory body, starts on Tuesday. This will be followed on Wednesday by the opening of the National People’s Congress, China’s rubber-stamp parliament. Investors will be watching out for the targets for fiscal deficit and government bond issuance. Economists believe the growth target and official fiscal deficit are unlikely to surprise, with consensus forecasts of 5 per cent and 4 per cent respectively.

In Europe, meanwhile, the focus will be on a special EU summit on European defence and support for Ukraine on Thursday.

And so we move to the corporate news items to watch. The week starts with a high-stakes legal battle in London as former Barclays boss Jes Staley seeks to clear his name and overturn a 2023 ban imposed by the UK Financial Conduct Authority.

The case dates back to 2023, when the American investment banker was banned from holding senior positions in financial services, and fined £1.8mn, for “recklessly approving . . . two misleading statements about the nature of his relationship” with deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, with whom Staley had close ties during his time at JPMorgan Chase, before he joined Barclays. This was the first time the watchdog had banned a chief executive of a big British bank for actions taken on his watch. The appeal case is expected to run for a couple of weeks and throw up embarrassing revelations for those involved. Fortunately, my colleagues in the FT’s legal and banking team have written a comprehensive explainer.

Monday also sees the start of MWC Barcelona, the world’s largest mobile telecoms industry convention, returning to the Mediterranean sun for another round of product launches and new service announcements until Thursday. Speakers include US Federal Communications Commission chair Brendan Carr and Vodafone chief executive Margherita Della Valle.

On Thursday the European Central Bank will set its interest rates. The 26-member governing council is expected to vote through another 25 basis-point cut to 2.5 per cent, but some have raised concerns that the eurozone’s central bank is becoming boxed in by market expectations.

There will be a steady stream of economic data updates to digest too, beginning with Monday’s purchasing managers’ index reports for the G7 nations and culminating in US employment figures and the EU’s fourth-quarter GDP estimate on Friday.

Earnings season is drawing to a close with fewer than 20 S&P 500 companies reporting results, but expect figures from tech ventures Broadcom, Marvell and CrowdStrike. Numerous central bank heads will be out on the speakers’ circuit over the coming days too. More details on these and other items below.

One more thing . . . 

The Moules family are now a year into owning a chocolate Labrador dog, which means the group family television event next Sunday evening is likely to be the grand finale of this week’s premier pooch event, Crufts.

If you wish to get in touch, email me at [email protected] or, if you’re reading this from your inbox, just hit reply. However you plan to spend your week, I wish you well.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Ex-Barclays chief executive Jes Staley’s appeal against the Financial Conduct Authority begins in a London tribunal. The hearing is due to last two weeks

• Mobile World Congress begins in Barcelona, Spain

• Claudia Buch, European Central Bank supervisory board chair, speaks on 10 years of banking union, its achievements and challenges for the future, at the 18th Finanzplatztag (Financial Centre Day) in Frankfurt, Germany

• Canada, China, EU, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB/HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• EU: preliminary February harmonised indices of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate estimate for the Eurozone

• South Korea: Independence Movement Day (Samil Day). Financial markets closed

• UK: January money and credit figures, plus effective interest rates

• Results: Bunzl FY, Burford Capital Q4, Quartix Technologies FY, Senior FY

Tuesday

• Australia: Reserve Bank board monetary policy meeting minutes published

• EU: January unemployment data

• Japan: February consumer confidence survey and January labour force survey

• South Africa: Q4 GDP estimate

• UK: Kantar’s grocery market share and price inflation update. Also, British Retail Consortium’s Shop Price Index

• Results: Abrdn FY, Ashtead Group Q3, Bakkavor FY, Beazley FY, Best Buy Q4, Campari FY, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli FY, Continental FY, CrowdStrike Q4, Direct Line FY, Flutter Entertainment FY, Fresnillo FY, Greggs FY, Inchcape FY, International Workplace Group FY, Intertek FY, Johnson Service Group FY, Keller Group FY, Kitwave FY, Kuehne + Nagel FY, Oxford Nanopore Technologies FY, Prada FY, Progressive Corp Q4, Reach FY, Ross Stores Q4, Saudi Aramco FY, Spirent Communications FY, Target Corp Q4, Thales FY, Weir Group FY

Wednesday

• Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey appears before the parliamentary Treasury committee in London, presenting an assessment of the prospects for UK inflation and GDP growth.

• Australia: Q4 GDP estimate

• Canada, China, EU, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB/HSBC services PMI data

• EU: January producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• South Korea: revised Q4 GDP figures

• UK: February official international reserves data. Also, the quarterly review will confirm after the London markets close which companies have been promoted and relegated in the composition of FTSE indices by market capitalisation.

• US: Federal Reserve Beige Book published

• Results: Adidas FY, AIB Group FY, Atos FY, Bayer Q4, Breedon FY, Campbell’s Q2, Dowlais FY, Foxtons FY, Ibstock FY, Marvell Q4, Nexxen International Q4, Quilter FY, Ricardo HY

Thursday

• Former Credit Suisse banker Andrew Pearse to be sentenced after pleading guilty to one count of wire fraud for taking millions of dollars in kickbacks in connection with $2bn in loans to state-owned companies in Mozambique

• EU: European Central Bank interest rate decision

• France, Germany, Italy, UK: S&P Global construction PMI data

• UK: Bank of England publishes its Decision Maker Panel survey of chief financial officers from small, medium and large British businesses

• US: January trade in goods and services

• Results: Admiral Group FY, Bouygues FY, Broadcom Q1, Coats Group FY, Costco Wholesale Q2, Deutsche Post FY, Elementis FY, Entain FY, Funding Circle FY, Gap Q4, Getlink FY, Grafton FY, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Q1, Hunting FY, Informa FY, ING Groep FY, ITV FY, Lancashire Group Q4, Lufthansa FY, Melrose Industries FY, Merck Q4, PageGroup FY, Rentokil Initial FY, Robert Walters FY, Schroders FY, Spire Healthcare FY, Zalando FY

Friday

• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann gives the keynote lecture at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand research conference Holding Anchor in Turbulent Waters in Wellington

• Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell is among the central bankers speaking at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 US Monetary Policy Forum conference in New York

• Welcome address by European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde at the ECB International Women’s Day 2025 conference “Closing the Financial Literacy Gap” in Frankfurt, Germany

• Brazil: Q4 GDP estimate

• EU: Q4 GDP estimate

• Germany: January manufacturing orders data

• UK: Halifax House Price Index

• US: February employment data

• Results: Just Group FY, Royal London FY, Stelrad Group FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• 2025 Pacific Operational Science & Technology (POST) five-day conference begins in Honolulu, Hawaii, hosted by the National Defense Industrial Association and the US Indo-Pacific Command

• France: Paris Fashion Week begins, running until March 11

• UK: Inquiry begins into government decisions to buy personal protective equipment (PPE) during the Covid-19 pandemic. It will include evidence related to PPE Medpro, a company linked to Conservative peer Michelle Mone and her husband Doug Barrowman, which Mone recommended to the government. The National Crime Agency opened an investigation into PPE Medpro in May 2021 into suspected criminal offences committed in PPE procurement. Mone and Barrowman deny any wrongdoing.

• US: third meeting of countries party to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons at the UN headquarters in New York. Japan is due to skip the gathering, which runs until Friday.

Tuesday

• Pre-Lent celebrations, variously called Carnival, Fat Tuesday, Mardi Gras, Shrove Tuesday and Pancake Day

• Canada/Mexico: 25 per cent tariffs scheduled to begin on goods from these countries travelling to the US market

• China: start of the third session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference

• Micronesia: parliamentary elections

• UK: Make UK national manufacturing conference in London. Speakers will include “a senior government minister” and shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith. Discussion about improving British growth prospects will be a key talking point

• US: President Donald Trump due to address a joint session of Congress

Wednesday

• Ash Wednesday, the start of Lent in the western church calendar

• Canada: 2025 Ottawa Conference on Security and Defence begins its two-day gathering. The theme is From Policy to Action in an Unpredictable World

• Russia: 72nd anniversary of Joseph Stalin’s death. Communists traditionally lay flowers at the Soviet leader’s grave in Moscow to mark the occasion

• China: National People’s Congress commences

Thursday

• EU: leaders of the 27 member states will hold an emergency summit to discuss next steps for Ukraine and Europe’s security

• UK: 28th annual World Book Day, celebrating literature and reading

Friday

• US: 60th anniversary of “Bloody Sunday” in Selma, Alabama, when state troopers beat peaceful protesters marching against discrimination. The brutality against the marchers, including John Lewis, a Black civil rights activist who went on to become a congressman, helped spark the 1965 Voting Rights Act

Saturday

• International Women’s Day, commemorated in various countries

• Brazil: final day of the Rio Carnival

Sunday

• Canada: new Liberal Party leader announced, and de facto prime minister, following the resignation of incumbent Justin Trudeau

• China publishes consumer price index and PPI inflation rate data

• UK: Crufts 2025 Best in Show presented on final day of the 134-year-old pedigree dog competition, now held in Birmingham, named after Charles Cruft

• US: Daylight Saving Time begins