Stay informed with free updates
Simply sign up to the World myFT Digest — delivered directly to your inbox.
Good morning.
Global trade growth is set to more than double this year as inflation eases and a booming US economy helps to drive activity, according to international bodies.
The OECD, IMF and World Trade Organization are forecasting a sharp rebound in global flows of products this year after a slowdown in 2023 driven by higher prices, surging interest rates and sluggish demand.
According to the OECD, global trade in goods and services is expected to rise 2.3 per cent this year and 3.3 per cent in 2025. This compares with growth of just 1 per cent last year.
Clare Lombardelli, chief economist at the OECD, said a lot of the uptick was due to a “cyclical recovery” as trade rises alongside broader economic growth. She added that China and east Asia were expected to be big drivers of activity. Here’s more on the latest economic forecasts.
-
Xi Jinping in Europe: French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen pressed China’s leader for more balanced trade ties during his visit to Paris yesterday.
We’ll be watching Xi’s visit to the Pyrenees later today for more personal one-on-one talks with Macron, as he continues his whistle-stop tour of Europe. And here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:
-
Economic data: Germany publishes industrial orders and foreign trade figures, while Halifax has its house price index for the UK.
-
Apple: The company, which had a rocky start to the year, hosts an event called Let Loose that is expected to focus on the iPad.
-
Results: BP’s shareholders expect the oil major to scale back its climate targets again when it reports earnings today. DHL Group, Infineon Technologies, IWG, Reddit, Saudi Aramco, UBS, UniCredit and Walt Disney also report.
-
Rachel Reeves: The shadow chancellor will claim that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is “gaslighting the British public” over the state of the economy in a speech in the City of London.
Our Inside Politics newsletter and Political Fix podcast are hosting a subscriber-only event tomorrow on how recent local polls will shape the UK general election. Sign up for free here.
Five more top stories
1. Hamas said yesterday it had broadly accepted a proposal for a temporary ceasefire in exchange for freeing dozens of Israeli hostages. Israel responded that the plan fell “far from Israel’s necessary requirements” and vowed to press ahead with its military offensive in Rafah. Here’s what we know about the latest proposal.
2. SoftBank is leading an investment of more than $1bn into UK self-driving car start-up Wayve, marking Europe’s largest artificial intelligence deal to date. The funding round, which also includes Nvidia and existing investor Microsoft, will allow the London-based company to deploy its autonomous systems in cars in the coming years. Here’s why the deal is significant for the UK.
3. The personal details of UK military personnel have been targeted in a cyber attack by a hostile state, the British government is expected to announce today. According to Sky News, China is suspected of being behind the attack, which affected a UK Ministry of Defence contractor’s IT system and was not linked to the MoD’s central network. Read the full story.
4. Global policymakers are imposing new taxes on electric vehicles as the shift away from combustion engines threatens to leave a $110bn hole in government revenues owing to a drop in receipts from fuel duties. The measures are varied, running from registration fees to road usage charges based on mileage and taxes on public charging points. Here are the countries that have introduced such measures.
5. Boeing has delayed the launch of its CST-100 Starliner spacecraft after an issue was found with a component, just hours after US aviation regulators opened their second investigation into the company this year. The spacecraft, created through a joint venture with Lockheed Martin, was due to carry two astronauts to the International Space Station. Here’s more on the aerospace group’s latest woes.
The Big Read
Shares in St James’s Place, the UK’s biggest provider of financial advice, have fallen 60 per cent over the past year. According to critics inside and outside the group, a charging model that ultimately funded lavish entertainment and other rewards for top-grossing advisers has been opaque and expensive. This fee structure is under increasing scrutiny after a regulatory clampdown by the Financial Conduct Authority, with some analysts saying the company’s shrinking market value could make it a takeover target.
We’re also reading . . .
-
Kenya-US ties: William Ruto, the African nation’s leader, will seek to enhance relations and extend a trade pact when he meets US President Joe Biden this month, even as Russian influence grows on the continent.
-
Brexit: Berlin and Brussels were partly to blame for not offering the UK real concessions before its pivotal EU referendum in 2016, the chief of Germany’s Christian Democrats told the Financial Times.
-
SEC and crypto: The US regulator’s war on digital assets would cripple the industry and stifle American innovation, writes Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin.
-
War in Ukraine: With the frontline in urgent need of new troops, Kyiv has started a campaign inviting men to choose their own unit and even their precise role.
Chart of the day
Fewer Londoners are searching for homes in the countryside, according to an analysis by Rightmove. The proportion of London-based house-hunters looking to move out of the city has returned to the pre-Covid average of about a third, against a peak of almost half in August 2021. Here’s why.
Take a break from the news
Boasting 13 floors of floating luxury and 14 restaurants, Cunard’s Queen Anne is shiningly, achingly new, writes Henry Mance. But is the $600mn pleasure palace already a relic of the days of high-carbon travel?
Additional contributions from Benjamin Wilhelm and Gordon Smith
Recommended newsletters for you
Working It — Everything you need to get ahead at work, in your inbox every Wednesday. Sign up here
One Must-Read — The one piece of journalism you should read today. Sign up here