Israel vows retaliation after Iran’s missile barrage | Invesloan.com

Today’s agenda: Oil prices surge; Vance-Walz debate; Google’s AI lab assistant; how Andrea Orcel did it; and Martin Wolf on the end of cheap money

Good morning. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Iran after the Islamic republic fired scores of ballistic missiles at Israel yesterday as the region slid ever closer towards all-out war. Here’s what we know.

What happened: Israel said it intercepted most of the estimated 180 missiles, but there were a “few hits” in the centre and south of the country. A person briefed on the situation said Tehran’s intended targets included military and intelligence infrastructure near Tel Aviv. Iran said 90 per cent of its missiles had hit targets, with state media claiming successful hits on an air base and civilian airport. Israel’s military said it was not aware of any casualties from the barrage. The attack came soon after two Palestinian shooters killed six people in Tel Aviv’s southern neighbourhood of Jaffa.

Will the US get dragged into a potential war? American naval destroyers helped Israel to shoot down Iran’s missiles in yesterday’s attack, and the US has promised to “work with Israel” to ensure “severe consequences” for Tehran. The US has also been deploying more forces since Israel assassinated Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and intensified its bombing of Lebanon. It has about 40,000 troops in the region.

The chances of the US not backing Israel are small, writes chief foreign affairs columnist Gideon Rachman, who notes that the strike has delivered an “October surprise” that may benefit Donald Trump in the US election. Politicians will want to appear fully supportive of Israel and avoid appearing soft on Iran.

We have more insight into this latest escalation and its impact:

• Oil prices surge: Brent crude rose as much as 5 per cent to $75.40 a barrel yesterday as the possibility of all-out war stoked supply fears.

• Military briefing: While Israel’s Iron Dome intercepted most of Iran’s missiles, there were crucial differences from Tehran’s earlier attack in April.

• 12 key moments: From exploding pagers and assassinations to missile strikes, Middle East editor Andrew England traces the events pushing the region toward full-scale war.

Scroll further to read about how the hostilities will affect the White House race. And here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Starmer in Brussels: European officials have warned the UK prime minister not to expect an easy ride as he tries to “reset” Britain’s ties with the EU.

• Aircraft ‘mega trial’: AIG, Chubb and Lloyd’s of London are among insurers facing a multibillion-dollar claim in London’s High Court from owners of planes stuck in Russia.

• Markets: ConAgra Brands, JD Sports, and Lamb Weston report results. Israel’s markets are closed to mark Rosh Hashana eve.

Five more top stories

1. Vice-presidential candidates JD Vance and Tim Walz sparred over US foreign policy and immigration in a debate yesterday night, laying out sharply contrasting visions of America’s role in the world at a pivotal moment in the campaign’s final stretch. Here’s what they said about the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

2. Exclusive: Google DeepMind and BioNTech are building AI lab assistants to help researchers plan scientific experiments and better predict outcomes as companies race to find specialised applications for energy and data-intensive artificial intelligence models. Google’s AI chief said biology was “seeing a revolution” as a result of AI.

3. China’s outbound investment is surging from already-record levels, government data shows, as analysts suggest that the country’s booming clean energy technology sector is increasingly looking to set up manufacturing operations abroad in the face of US and EU tariffs and driving a “tsunami” of green investment.

4. Exclusive: City minister Tulip Siddiq is pushing for the UK to start issuing “digital gilts” on the blockchain amid concerns that Britain needs to modernise its markets to compete internationally, but the Treasury agency responsible for managing the government’s debt has resisted the move. George Parker and Michael O’Dwyer have more details.

5. Nike has reported a 10 per cent drop in quarterly sales and withdrawn its full-year forecast, sending shares down as much as 7 per cent in after-hours trading yesterday. This come as the world’s largest sportswear maker navigates a tumultuous period ahead of the arrival of its new chief executive.

News in-depth

Andrea Orcel stunned Germany last week by raising UniCredit’s stake in Commerzbank to 21 per cent, mirroring tactics from hostile takeover battles of more than a decade ago. But a loophole in EU disclosure rules has since been closed, making large-scale secret stakebuilding impossible. So how did the Italian lender’s chief manage to sidestep these rules?

We’re also reading . . . 

• Ozempic and the gym: Weight-loss drugs and a new focus on wellness are pushing many exercise machines towards obsolescence, writes Brooke Masters.

• Eli Lilly’s rise: The company is set to become the first $1tn drugmaker by market value, but investors see warning signs it has reached “peak enthusiasm”.

• Raspberry Pi: Conceived to enable technology education, the Cambridge-based company has charmed its way a UK computer revival, writes John Gapper.

• Modi’s big challenge: India faces an economic mismatch: a chronic shortage of jobs matched only by the lack of suitable candidates to fill them.

Chart of the day

Have we seen the end of cheap money? We are witnessing the beginning of an easing cycle in monetary policy, but there are reasons to expect real interest rates to go even higher, writes Martin Wolf.

Take a break from the news

Wondering what to do, buy and eat this month? From jazz and brandy at Brunswick House in London to a restaurant with a “bring your own truffle” scheme, here are 14 brilliant recommendations from HTSI’s writers.

Additional contributions from Gordon Smith and Benjamin Wilhelm