Trump fuels hypothesis of US involvement in Iran | Invesloan.com

Today’s agenda: Big Tech lobbies against AI rules; US to delay TikTok ban again; Big Read on coal; Martin Wolf on Trump’s “big, beautiful” bill

Good morning. We start in the Middle East, where the question as the war enters its sixth day is whether the US will join Israeli military action against Iran. Here’s what we know.

Will Trump get involved? The US president’s recent remarks have stoked speculation. He called for Tehran’s “unconditional surrender” and said his patience was “wearing thin”, and boasted that Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was an “easy target”. Vice-president JD Vance said Trump “may decide he needs to take further action” to stop Iran enriching uranium. People familiar with the administration’s discussions said officials were actively debating American involvement. The US has also been sending more military assets to the region.

Why it matters: While Israel’s military has had early successes since launching its surprise attack on Iran last Friday, analysts are doubtful it would be able to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities without US involvement. The US is the only country believed to have bombs powerful enough to damage the crucial Fordow uranium enrichment plant, which is deep underground and shielded by metres of reinforced concrete. So far, US officials say it has adopted a defensive posture, but this has included helping Israel to shoot down incoming Iranian missiles and drones.

Meanwhile, Israel said it launched a fresh round of attacks near Tehran this morning. Follow our live blog for the latest updates.

• Nuclear disaster? Israel’s attacks on uranium enrichment facilities have caused localised radioactivity, but contamination appears limited.

• ‘Iranian lioness’: State TV anchor Sahar Emami has become a symbol of resistance after she kept broadcasting amid Israeli bombing.

• Tanker collision: A crash between two oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz has raised anxieties about GPS interference in the region.

• Netanyahu: The Israeli prime minister has consistently misread the region since the 1980s, writes Kim Ghattas, dooming it to endless cycles of violence.

Here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: The EU and UK publish consumer price inflation data.

• US interest rates: The Federal Reserve will probably be cautious about cutting borrowing costs in its decision today with new economic shocks from the Middle East.

• Russia: President Vladimir Putin will welcome attendees to the three-day 28th St Petersburg International Economic Forum.

Five more top stories

1. Big Tech is pushing for a 10-year ban on AI regulation by individual US states, in a controversial move that has split the artificial intelligence industry and Trump’s Republican party. People familiar with the moves said lobbyists are acting on behalf of Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta to urge the Senate to enact the moratorium.

2. Trump plans to delay a ban on TikTok for a third time, extending a deadline for the Chinese-owned platform to divest a stake in the platform by 90 days. The White House said Trump would sign an executive order this week to keep the popular social media app up and running while a deal is being reached.

3. Exclusive: HSBC is considering forcing staff back to the office at least three days a week. Chief executive Georges Elhedery has discussed the group-wide policy with executives across the bank’s businesses, people involved in the deliberations said, with some managers frustrated that many employees are still mostly working from home.

4. Exclusive: Boston Consulting Group pitched the UN agency for Palestinian refugees on working for its humanitarian effort in Gaza, months before helping launch a widely condemned rival aid scheme that sidelined the UN. According to people familiar with the matter and correspondence seen by the FT, shortly after Israel’s military campaign began in late 2023, the company had offered pro bono work to UNRWA.

• Gaza: Israeli soldiers killed 59 Palestinians who had gathered in the hope of receiving aid at two locations in the enclave, according to the local health ministry.

5. A mayoral candidate in New York was detained by law enforcement yesterday while trying to escort a defendant out of immigration court, his spokesperson said. The arrest of Brad Lander, who is also the city’s top finance official, highlights the rising political temperature in response to Trump’s deportation push.

The Big Read

Immediately after the Paris climate accord was signed nearly a decade ago, it seemed as if world leaders were finally in agreement, with several countries pledging to quit coal entirely to limit global warming. Many people from experts to politicians believed demand for the dirty energy source had peaked. They could not have been more wrong.

We’re also reading . . . 

• Forever chemicals: Researchers say a recent move to relook at how the controversial substances are defined has been motivated by commercial interests, writes Anjana Ahuja.

• Reform UK: Some in the Labour party fear Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s move to label Nigel Farage’s populist party as “the real opposition” gave it too much credibility.

• UK non-doms: Labour must reverse an exodus of the wealthy that will harm Britain’s economy, writes our editorial board.

Chart of the day 

Whose interest does Trump serve? His “big beautiful” budget bill is a powerful example of “pluto-populism”, writes Martin Wolf: the rich receive most of the goodies; the poor become poorer; and the fiscal deficit stays huge.

Take a break from the news

From politics, economics and history to art, food and, of course, fiction — FT writers and critics choose their favourite reads of the year.