Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s moving before the bell.
Bitcoin edged up toward $92,000 on Wednesday while Asian stocks slipped, as traders braced for the US Federal Reserve’s final rate decision of the year and tried to gauge how hawkish the central bank will sound after an almost certain cut.
Equity markets across the region tracked a soft lead from Wall Street. The S&P 500 ended slightly lower on Tuesday, with JPMorgan acting as the biggest drag after the bank warned of hefty expenses in 2026, adding another layer of caution to a market already on edge about policy signals.
The Fed began its two-day meeting on Tuesday, and futures markets still point to a quarter percentage point cut, even though inflation remains above the 2% target.
Market snapshot
- Bitcoin: $92,479, up 2.5%
- Ether: $3,308, up 6.4%
- XRP: $2.09, up 1.2%
- Total crypto market cap: $3.24 trillion, up 2.8%
Traders Brace For Hawkish Messaging Even As A Cut Appears Likely
For crypto traders, the question is less about whether the Fed moves this week and more about what Chair Jerome Powell signals on the path ahead.
Some in the market see politics creeping into the calculus. Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, said an expected cut amid slightly rising inflation “may be driven more by political considerations than by sound economic reasoning.”
He added that he expects Powell to try to offset the move with hawkish language, a mix he believes could weigh on risk assets. “A hawkish message could increase selling pressure on the already fragile US equity markets, which could, in turn, negatively affect BTC and the broader crypto market,” he said.
Others are already tempering their year-end Bitcoin hopes. Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co founder of The Coin Bureau, said, “If Powell does indeed deliver a hawkish speech, the likelihood of a Santa rally for Bitcoin diminishes.”
He noted that momentum has not been on Bitcoin’s side recently despite fresh purchases from Michael Saylor’s firm, and said the market “may well finish 2025 under $100,000.”
Inflation And Labor Data Add To Confusion Over Policy Direction
The macro backdrop is not offering much clarity. Fed officials have sent mixed messages, with some warning that inflation could reaccelerate and others sounding more concerned about the labour market.
A Labor Department report on Tuesday showed job openings rising only marginally in October and hiring still subdued, while a separate survey from the National Federation of Independent Business pointed to plans for new hiring in the months ahead.
That tension has pushed more attention onto the Fed’s dot plot, its economic projections and every line of Powell’s press conference. Swings around rate decisions have become one of the main drivers of equity volatility over the past six weeks, often overshadowing debates about an AI bubble or the impact of President Donald Trump’s trade policies on corporate earnings and risk sentiment.
Slower Easing Path Threatens Liquidity Trade That Crypto Relies On
Pricing in money markets shows how expectations have cooled. Traders now see around two cuts in 2026 after a likely quarter point reduction on Wednesday, a pullback from the more optimistic views that circulated only weeks earlier.
For Bitcoin and other digital assets, a slower easing path can mean tighter dollar liquidity and more pressure on the “liquidity trade” that helped fuel previous rallies.
Personnel questions at the Fed are also in the mix. Kevin Hassett, viewed as the frontrunner in Trump’s search to replace Powell, said at an event on Tuesday that he sees room to lower rates substantially, and even more than a single quarter point move.
His comments fed speculation that the longer term policy stance could shift if the White House reshapes the central bank’s leadership in 2026.
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