Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating within a mild bearish phase, trading between $97,000 and $111,900. The resistance stands near $116,000 “marked by top-buyers’ supply cluster,” according to the latest report by the blockchain data provider Glassnode.
Notably, significant factors like ETF outflows, low leverage, and persistent put demand portray a highly cautious market that’s currently waiting for “renewed conviction.”
Market in a State of Consolidation
Bitcoin has dipped below $100,000 in the seven-day timeframe. While brief, the slip proved a continuation of the broader downtrend that began in early October.
It pushed the market into what the report calls “a mild bearish regime.” Prices are trading beneath the short-term holder cost basis.
Moreover, “a range suffering from the lack of conviction and low liquidity has been confirmed.” This range consists of strong resistance between $106,000 and $118,000 on the one hand, and key structural support near $97,500 and $100,000 on the other.
Looking deeper, on-chain data showed a brief accumulation near $100,000, suggesting localized support. Yet, if there is no decisive reclaim of the short-term holders’ cost basis at $111,900, the “upside momentum is likely to stay constrained.”
Similarly, off-chain indicators signal caution as well. There are several key factors suggesting subdued speculative engagement. These include the US spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) outflows, muted funding rates, and low open interest point. Options traders still prefer downside protection around $100,000.
When it comes to the ETFs, “a decisive return of inflows would signal renewed institutional confidence, while prolonged outflows could reinforce a more defensive market tone,” says the report.
The analysts conclude that,
“Overall, both on-chain and off-chain signals portray a market in a state of consolidation, stabilizing yet not yet ready to confirm a bullish reversal. Until renewed inflows or a clear macro catalyst emerge, Bitcoin appears bound to oscillate within this $97K–$111.9K corridor, with $100K remaining the psychological line of defence.”
Meanwhile, the recent drawdown is similar to earlier contraction phases when prices moved within a defined lower range before recovery. “Unless Bitcoin reclaims the short-term holder cost basis (~$111.9K) as support, the probability of revisiting the lower bound of this range remains elevated.”
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A Critical Battleground
Reclaiming the above-mentioned short-term holder cost basis is a crucial prerequisite for “any sustainable shift toward recovery.”
At this point, “the sub-$100K zone has emerged as a critical battleground where seller exhaustion is beginning to take shape,” Glassnode noted. “Much of the downward pressure stems from top buyers among short-term holders, who have been realizing heavy losses during the decline.”
When BTC tested $98,000, over 80% of realized value came from coins sold at a loss. For a brief moment, this capitulation intensity surpassed the last three major washouts of this cycle. This highlights “how top-heavy the market has become and how pivotal the $100K level remains for near-term stability.”
Meanwhile, the Realized Profit of Short-Term Holders has been weak since June 2025. This shows a lack of fresh inflows. It needs stronger demand from new market entrants and renewed conviction if BTC is to push through the $106,000–$118,000 top-buyer cluster.
As for volatility, it “remains supported by macroeconomic risk factors and cautious sentiment.” Yet, there is no additional expansion. This “points to consolidation rather than capitulation.”
Interestingly, there is evidence that the market has adjusted to a higher baseline of uncertainty without entering a state of panic.
Finally, the Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap show a build-up of realized supply around the sub-$100,000 zone. It’s both before and after the rebound to $106,000, showing renewed accumulation by buyers absorbing capitulation flows.
“This dynamic completes the picture; pairing seller exhaustion with steady accumulation, creating the foundation for a short-term recovery even within a broader bearish structure,” says Glassnode.
Also, a dense supply cluster between $106,000 and $118,000 (where many investors exit to break even) capping upward momentum forms a natural resistance zone where rallies may stall. Consequently, “a sustained recovery will require renewed inflows strong enough to absorb this wave of distribution,” the report concludes.
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