Crypto analytics platform Santiment has cautioned that retail FOMO could emerge if Bitcoin climbs above $92,000.
The warning comes as Bitcoin trades near $90,000 early in 2026, with social sentiment showing its strongest bullish spike in six months despite modest trading volumes during the post-holiday period.
Brian, Santiment’s head of content, noted during a January 2nd livestream that Bitcoin’s approach toward the psychological $90,000 threshold typically triggers retail buying pressure.
“Usually when we see something like 89.9K, there’s a bit of a retail push to at least hit that milestone,” he explained, adding that such moves often precede increased volatility as limit sells activate and FOMO intensifies.
Mixed Signals as New Year Trading Begins
Market data reveals a complex picture as 2026 opens.
Bitcoin’s social volume remained flat, with just a 0.06% change from the previous week, while Ethereum saw a minimal increase of 1%.
Mid-cap altcoins attracted more attention, with Dogecoin discussions jumping 57% and Cardano rising 19%, suggesting retail interest may be shifting toward smaller assets after what traders called “the bloodbath that was the end of 2025.“
Santiment’s positive-versus-negative sentiment ratio for Bitcoin reached nearly 2:1 on January 1st, the highest reading since early October.
This marks the strongest bullish sentiment shift in over six months, though analysts remain cautious about interpreting the surge.
“I’m not necessarily going to be too worried about a lot of FOMO going on right now,” Brian stated, noting the timing coincides with traders returning from holidays rather than genuine conviction.
The sentiment spike appears exclusive to Bitcoin, with Ethereum and XRP showing more neutral readings.
Mentions of “higher or above” also outweighed “lower or below” references, reinforcing the optimistic tone among retail traders.
However, historical patterns suggest extreme bullish sentiment often precedes corrections as markets move contrary to crowd expectations.
Whale Accumulation Provides Bullish Foundation
On-chain metrics paint a more encouraging picture beneath the surface noise.
Wallets holding 10 to 10,000 Bitcoin accumulated approximately 65,500 BTC since November 30th, with 55,400 BTC added in just the past two weeks alone.
This represents the highest percentage of supply held by whales and sharks since November 10th.
Maxim Balashevich, Santiment’s founder and CEO, suggested the current price action could reflect anticipation of MicroStrategy’s expected weekend purchases.
“There could be some players betting on the Saylor,” he noted. “Maybe can engage some retail jump to the wagon of new year buying might work.“
The accumulation pattern contrasts with retail behavior, as smaller wallets holding less than 0.01 Bitcoin continued adding to positions throughout the recent volatility.
This simultaneous buying from both whales and retail investors creates uncertainty, as historical patterns favor rallies when large holders accumulate while small traders sell.
$BTC path into 2026 looks increasingly mixed
• $100K lost, no late-year rally
• ETFs see outflows, macro pressure grows
• Whales still accumulating on dips#Bitcoin #BTC #2026https://t.co/24wCTbRK7W— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) December 22, 2025
Choppy Waters Expected Before Directional Move
Santiment analysts expect sideways trading through the weekend before clearer signals emerge.
“We need to wait until Monday to get more data,” Balashevich stated, noting that many U.S. traders remain on holiday until next week.
He anticipates potential upside through Sunday, driven by speculation around institutional buying, followed by either downside on Monday or continued consolidation, depending on broader market conditions.
The 30-day market-to-realized-value ratio sits near breakeven, while the 365-day metric shows long-term holders down 11.5% from October’s all-time high of $126,000.
Network growth remained strong at year-end, though profit-taking spiked to six-week highs on January 2nd as traders capitalized on the move toward $90,000.
Looking ahead, Santiment emphasizes monitoring whether Bitcoin can break above $92,000 without triggering excessive retail enthusiasm.
The platform’s data suggests that while whale accumulation provides bullish underpinning, a FOMO-driven rally above key resistance levels could set up conditions for a sharper correction once speculative fever peaks.
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