Elon Musk and the White House DOGE office will get early reviews from voters in a pair of elections in Wisconsin and Florida on Tuesday night.
Wisconsinites will vote for their next state Supreme Court justice, potentially handing conservatives a narrow majority — a race where Musk, via PACs, has spent $12 million.
In Florida, President Donald Trump’s adopted home state, voters in a heavily Republican Daytona Beach-area congressional district will elect a replacement for former Rep. Mike Waltz. (A second special election to replace Rep. Matt Gaetz is not expected to be close.) Musk affiliated-groups spent at least $87,000 in the state.
Combined, they are the biggest races since Trump’s dominating 2024 performance — and since DOGE began its massive federal cost cutting efforts.
Musk and GOP leadership fear a liberal Wisconsin Supreme Court will redraw the state’s congressional map, making it even harder for Republicans to hold onto the US House next November.
A loss in Florida, beyond the immediate embarrassment, would also further narrow Speaker Mike Johnson’s thin majority right when Republicans are trying to pass Trump’s ambitious tax and immigration plan. Even a narrow win in Florida is mildly embarrassing, given Gov. Ron DeSantis used the district to launch himself to power.
Democrats sense an opportunity and have made Musk a major issue in both contests. Musk brought attention to the Wisconsin Supreme Court race by donning a Cheesehead and giving away $1 million checks.
Trump has steadfastly defended Musk so far, even hawking Teslas on the White House lawn. But if the GOP falters on Tuesday night, some of the blame, fairly or not, will be placed at the feet of Musk.
Problems are beginning to mount for Musk. Vulnerable House Republicans have begun to criticize the DOGE office more frequently. Lawmakers in their home districts are getting an earful from voters at town halls about how grant and program cuts affect their communities. And while he remains the world’s richest person, investors are souring on the thought of having a Tesla CEO this close to power.
The biggest risk for Musk is he can become the worst thing imaginable to Trump: a loser.
Democrats turn focus to Musk
In Wisconsin, the state Democratic party’s website portrays Musk as a puppeteer of conservative Judge Brad Schimel, the GOP’s preferred choice in the officially non-partisan race. Liberal Judge Susan Crawford has included Musk’s images in attack ads.
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Polling shows Musk is far more unpopular than Trump. With the global backlash against Tesla, Musk has become the exact kind of boogeyman opposing parties crave to juice turnout in off-year elections.
Musk has made a splash in Wisconsin — and potentially violated state law by offering a pair of $1 million checks to voters. (He did eventually change his description of the giveaway, and a judge ruled the giveaway could proceed.)
History shows presidential parties often struggle in midterm elections. Wisconsin and Florida will offer the White House an early indication of where things are headed.
And, perhaps, a change in direction at an early fork in the road.
