Earlier this week, a government shutdown appeared highly likely. Now, there’s a chance that a prolonged shutdown will be avoided.
In the days after Border Patrol agents fatally shot Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, Democratic senators vowed to oppose a bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security, the department that oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), without significant changes to immigration enforcement.
In the span of just a few hours following the deadly shooting on Saturday, shutdown odds rose from roughly 10% to the high 70s on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.
Late on Thursday night, after The New York Times first reported that the White House and Democratic senators were working to avert a shutdown, odds of a shudown on both platforms cratered. They have since recovered, hovering in the mid-60s as of Thursday morning.
That’s because Democratic senators now say they won’t vote to fund the Department of Homeland Security, or DHS — the department that oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol — until reforms to immigration enforcement are made.
It may just be a short shutdown
Even if lawmakers reach a deal, a short shutdown at least through the weekend is likely — funding for several agencies and programs officially runs out after midnight late Friday evening.
The House has already passed a series of six funding bills that have been stitched together into one package. That package includes DHS, the military, various government agencies, and a wide array of federal grants, among other things.
The GOP may control the upper chamber, but they can’t ignore Democrats. Due to the Senate’s 60-vote “filibuster” rule, and the fact that Republicans hold just 53 seats, Democratic votes are necessary to advance most major bills, including this one.
Democrats are only opposed to the DHS bill, and they want Republicans to work with them to separate out the bills.
But even if the bills are separated, the House would have to vote on them again in order to send them to President Donald Trump’s desk.
The House is set to be out of session until early next week, meaning a shutdown at least until then is likely.
This shutdown wouldn’t be as bad as the last one
Just months ago, the federal government shut down for 43 days, the longest shutdown in American history. There are a few reasons why this one wouldn’t be as bad.
For one, it would only be a partial shutdown, because lawmakers have already passed several bills to fund the government through September 30.
In the event of a prolonged shutdown, SNAP and WIC payments would be unaffected, Capitol Hill staffers would still get paid, and national parks would likely remain open.
Additionally, the path out of a shutdown is more straightforward this time.
In the fall, Democrats were demanding changes to healthcare while holding all of government funding back. This time, Democrats are only objecting to the DHS funding.
That means it’s plausible that the Senate would separate out the other five bills, the House would re-pass those bills next week, and the partial shutdown would only last a few days.
ICE still gets funded either way
Still, the DHS bill doesn’t just fund ICE and border patrol. It also funds the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
That raises the possibility of delays at airports and issues with disaster aid if the department goes unfunded for a long period of time.
Additionally, ICE will remain funded, even if the DHS bill doesn’t pass for a long time.
While the current DHS funding bill contains an additional $10 billion for ICE, the agency also received roughly $75 billion in funding via the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” in July.
Unless lawmakers were to agree to rescind that funding — extremely unlikely given GOP control of Congress — that money’s here to stay.
