The awards show ballot was once an innocent watch-party game.
Now, millions of dollars are at stake.
Fans planning to watch the 83rd Golden Globe Awards are plowing money into prediction markets, hoping for a windfall if they correctly choose a winner.
Millions have so far been bet on Golden Globe winners on Polymarket, one of the leading prediction market platforms. This year, Polymarket partnered with the Golden Globes, which airs on CBS and Paramount+ on Sunday at 8 p.m. ET.
“The collaboration will bring real-time, market-driven insights across the Golden Globes live events and a broad digital and editorial ecosystem touching fans’ greatest passion points across entertainment, fashion and pop culture,” a joint press release said.
Prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, allow users to buy and sell shares on the outcomes of future events, including sports games or presidential elections, potentially resulting in a payday. Polymarket also provides real-time updates, meaning the data can provide insights into how consumers and investors think.
The relatively new markets are not strictly regulated, leaving room for those with insider knowledge to game the system. A last-minute bet on Polymarket last week that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro would be ousted netted strong returns after the US captured Maduro in a surprise raid hours later. A new bill proposed last week in response would prohibit government officials from insider trading on prediction markets.
For the Globes, fans have already bet nearly $2.5 million in contracts across 30 awards show categories on Polymarket, including Best Director and Best Motion Picture, as of Sunday afternoon.
So, who do betters think will win?
Predicted Winners on Polymarket
Best Director
On Polymarket, betters think Paul Thomas Anderson, whose film “One Battle After Another” also snagged Golden Globe noms, has a 94% chance of winning Best Director. Ryan Coogler, director of “Sinners,” is behind Anderson at 3%.
Best Actor — Drama winner
Betters gave Wagner Moura, who starred in “The Secret Agent,” a 73% chance of winning Best Actor in a motion picture drama. Michael B. Jordan of “Sinners” had a 24% chance.
Best Actor — Musical or Comedy winner
Timothee Chalamet, star of “Marty Supreme,” led with a 70% chance to win Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy motion picture on Sunday afternoon. Leonardo DiCaprio followed Chalamet at 17% for his work in “One Battle After Another.”
Best Actress — Drama winner
“Hamnet” star Jessie Buckley had a 96% of winning Best Actress in a drama motion picture. Behind Buckley, betters gave Renate Reinsve of “Sentimental Value” a 3% chance of winning.
Best Actress — Musical or Comedy winner
Polymarket betters think Rose Byrne has a 76% chance of winning a Golden Globe Award for her role in the film, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.” Emma Stone, star of “Bugonia,” came in second at 12%.
Best Motion Picture — Animated winner
On Polymarket, users gave Netflix’s “KPop Demon Hunters” a 92% chance of winning the top animation prize. “Acro,” written and directed by Ugo Bienvenu, followed at a 5% chance.
Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy winner
Betters on Polymarket threw their money behind “One Battle After Another” to win this category at 97%, beating “Marty Supreme,” which had a 2% chance.
Best Motion Picture — Drama winner
“Sinners” had the highest chance to win Best Motion Picture in the drama category on Polymarket at 55%. “Hamnet” came behind that at a 31% chance.
