Russia may be losing weapons, tanks, and ammo at a staggering pace in Ukraine, but its defense production is going to easily make up for it, a top US general told Congress on Thursday.
US Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s supreme allied commander in Europe, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that Washington expects Russia to produce 250,000 artillery shells monthly.
“Which puts it on track to build a stockpile three times greater than the United States and Europe combined,” read Cavoli’s statement to the committee.
The four-star general focused his appearance at Capitol Hill on urging lawmakers to strengthen defense ties with allies across the pond, saying they must work closely to contain an increasingly hostile Russia.
Among Cavoli’s key concerns is his assessment that Russia is replenishing its losses in Ukraine swiftly — and becoming even stronger compared to before the war.
“Despite extensive battlefield losses in Ukraine, the Russian military is reconstituting and growing at a faster rate than most analysts had anticipated,” Cavoli wrote.
He said Moscow is quickly replacing its forces on all fronts, including ammo, armored vehicles, and troops.
The US now makes about 40,000 155mm artillery shells a month and hopes to reach a monthly production capacity of 90,000 rounds in 2026.
Meanwhile, the European Union has pledged to hit a manufacturing capacity of 2 million rounds a year, or about 167,000 rounds a month. However, its leaders have estimated it will only reach that level by the end of 2025.
Many of these rounds are being sent to Ukraine, though NATO countries are also concerned about maintaining their own stockpiles.
Should Ukraine receive 2 million shells a year, it can fire just under 5,500 a day. Cavoli, meanwhile, said at a defense conference in February 2023 that Russia was expending 20,000 shells a day on average.
In his statement to Congress on Thursday, Cavoli also warned that Russia is expected to produce more than 10 times the number of tanks that the US manufactures.
He said Russia would likely make 1,500 tanks every year, while the US makes 135 tanks a year.
“Russian ground forces in Ukraine have lost an estimated 3,000 tanks, 9,000 armored vehicles, 13,000 artillery systems, and over 400 air defense systems in the past year — but is on pace to replace them all,” he wrote.
As NATO’s supreme commander in Europe, Cavoli works closely with Ukraine. A wide-ranging piece by The New York Times recently reported that Cavoli regularly met with and advised Ukrainian generals and commanders at a secret base in Germany.
Cavoli’s testimony comes as the Trump administration contemplates a major shake-up in the Pentagon’s role in NATO, including potentially giving up having an American official as supreme allied commander in Europe.
The post has historically been held by a US military official.
Speaking to the armed services committee, Cavoli urged caution toward this decision, saying it could pose difficulties for US control over its nuclear forces in Europe.
“It would put us in a position where, in an Article 5 situation, we could have, for the first time since the First World War, a large number of American troops under non-US command,” he added.
