- Russia suffered over 420,000 casualties taking 1,600 square miles of territory in 2024, per the ISW.
- Russia’s losses in its invasion of Ukraine soared toward the end of the year.
- An update from Russia’s ex-president suggests Moscow is recruiting just enough soldiers to replace its losses.
Russian forces suffered more than 420,000 casualties while taking just over 1,600 square miles of territory in its war with Ukraine in 2024, the Institute for the Study of War said in an update on Tuesday.
The ISW said that it had seen geolocated evidence that showed Russian forces had advanced 4,168 square kilometers (about 1,609 sq miles) in 2024.
Using Ukrainian commander General Oleksandr Syrskyi’s estimate of more than 420,000 Russian casualties in the year, the ISW estimated that Moscow suffered around 102 casualties per square kilometer of Ukrainian territory seized.
Russian casualties have soared in recent months.
The UK Ministry of Defence said that November was a record for Russian losses in the war, with 45,680 casualties — a daily average of around 1,523.
George Barros, a Russia analyst at the ISW, told Business Insider that Russian losses were mounting as they “have been running a very high tempo of operations” since about October 2023.
“The Russians have been, I think, at the expense of high casualties and exhaustion, continuing with a very high tempo of operations, which haven’t ceased,” Barros said.
The slowness of Russia’s advance this year has been compared to the rapid gains that Ukraine was able to make when it launched an offensive into the Russian region of Kursk in August. Russia, though, has since taken much of that territory back.
While Russia has made increasing progress in recent months, taking a number of Ukrainian towns and villages, it has achieved no major symbolic or strategic gains.
The ISW said Moscow made 56.5% of its territorial gains in 2024 from September to November.
Russia’s tactics in its invasion have included using its larger military to try to overwhelm Ukrainian positions, often using “meat wave” assaults.
That means Russia may not slow down or stop its efforts even in the face of big losses.
The ISW noted that Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairperson of the Russian Security Council and a former Russian president, said in December that almost 440,000 recruits signed military service contracts with Russia’s defense ministry in 2024.
The ISW said this suggested “that Russia is likely recruiting just enough military personnel to replace its recently high casualty rates one for one.”
