President Donald Trump has a new fix to the affordability crisis — giving some of the tariffs you paid back to you.
“People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS!” Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday. “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”
Trump’s social media posts are not actual orders for the government to take any action, but the idea is already drawing attention.
According to a November 10 analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, there would not be enough tariff revenue to fund Trump’s idea.
“With our national debt quickly approaching an all-time high and annual budget deficits approaching $2 trillion per year, it is imperative that policymakers focus on actually reducing deficits and putting debt on a downward path,” the CRFB wrote.
Scott Bessent, the Secretary of the Treasury, also said that the rebate may not come in the form of direct checks.
Here is a breakdown of what Trump could be proposing, if it’s legally feasible, and whether you might actually receive a $2,000 check.
What did Trump propose?
In simple terms, Trump appears to be proposing a dividend, which typically refers to a payment made by a corporation to its shareholders on a quarterly or semi-annual basis, usually representing a distribution of the company’s profits based on the number of shares held.
In this case, Trump is saying that each American could receive a portion of the tariff revenue collected through import duties, which he said would amount to $2,000 per person.
“We’re taking in so much money that we may very well make a dividend to the people of America,” Trump said in August, when he mentioned the proposal for the first time.
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However, there is a catch: It is very possible that you would not come out ahead with $2,000 more, because, as a consumer, you are probably paying for some of the tariff revenue the government has collected, as many companies have passed tariff costs to consumers.
According to the Yale Budget Lab’s October report, the total 2025 tariffs are equivalent to an average loss of $1,800 per household. So that $2,000 personal surplus is likely closer to $200.
Who could qualify?
Unclear.
Based on the language of Trump’s social media posts, it appears that only middle- and low-income US citizens will receive the rebate, but he did not specify the cutoff point. He also did not mention whether the income level would be measured according to regional standards or the national average.
Can the government afford it?
We did the math.
So far, the Trump administration has collected more than $220 billion in tariff revenue, including new tariffs and those left behind by the Biden administration.
According to the IRS, more than 163 million Americans filed tax returns in 2024. If we consider everyone making $100,000 a year or above to be too wealthy to be eligible, that still leaves around 150 million adults who would each receive $2,000, according to a post on X by Erica York, Vice President of the Tax Foundation.
In the case above, the total payout would be about $300 billion, which exceeds the total tariff revenue collected to date.
Based on Trump’s social media post on Monday morning, he seems to think that there will still be leftover tariff revenue after the dividend to “substantially pay down the national debt.”
The current US government debt is over $38 trillion, according to the Treasury.
Can Trump do this unilaterally?
Most likely not.
Congress is responsible for the government budget — hence the recent government shutdown. Stimulus checks in the past, such as the pandemic-era rescue funds proposed by both the Trump and the Biden administrations, had received congressional approval.
What did the Treasury say?
Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent doesn’t sound enthusiastic.
During an interview with ABC that aired on Sunday, Bessent said that no plan has been made to spend tariff revenue, and the $2,000 payment could come in the form of not taxing tips and Social Security payments.
What about the tariff lawsuit?
That is a thorny question.
The IEEPA tariff case brought by small businesses just had its first hearing at the Supreme Court earlier in November. Whether Trump has the power to unilaterally impose tariffs without congressional approval is at the heart of the matter.
The government may have to return all tariff revenue made under the IEEPA if the Supreme Court decides to rule Trump’s tariffs as unconstitutional. Economic damage to the federal government is not taken into consideration in cases concerning the Constitution, so whether Trump decides to spend all the tariff revenue does not affect the legality of his tariffs.
When could you expect checks?
Don’t hold your breath.
No formal proposal has been made yet by the White House, and it could take weeks to pass it in Congress, if the two parties could agree to support this spending.
During the pandemic, it took about 20 weeks for the first stimulus check to reach people’s deposit accounts after the proposal was passed. It is highly unlikely that any tariff rebates will arrive in time for you to splurge on Christmas gifts.
