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Gold costs doubtless would endure if the U.S. economic system achieves a delicate touchdown subsequent yr and avoids a recession, regardless of rising inflation and rates of interest this yr, the World Gold Council mentioned this week in its 2024 gold outlook.
But the WGC shouldn’t be assured {that a} delicate touchdown is inevitable and mentioned a gentle recession remains to be very a lot a risk – “It’s not going to be a straight line,” WGC chief market strategist John Reade instructed Dow Jones this week.
Gold doubtless will rise when the Federal Reserve lowers rates of interest, Reade mentioned, in “a reflection of how important U.S. monetary policy and the U.S. economic outlook is to gold.”
The market at the moment is pricing in roughly 5 charge cuts for subsequent yr, in keeping with Reade, saying buyers ought to be capable to place for gold when the Fed begins to chop.
Reade mentioned bodily gold shopping for would take a success if costs stay risky, particularly in locations equivalent to India, the Middle East and China the place bodily consumers of gold are extra worth delicate.
Front-month gold futures traded at a document excessive $2,152/ounceson December 4 however wound up falling for the week, -3.5% to $1,998.30/oz.
ETFs: (NYSEARCA:GLD), (NYSEARCA:GDX), (GDXJ), (IAU), (NUGT), (PHYS), (GLDM), (AAAU), (SGOL), (BAR), (OUNZ)
At Barron’s, Ben Levisohn thinks it may be “time to buy gold again for the long run,” pointing to varied rising indicators {that a} interval of outperformance is taking form.
Among many components, Levisohn famous that gold’s latest rally started on October 6, the day earlier than Hamas attacked Israel, and if the world continues so as to add extra flashpoints to an already a flamable combine, gold might proceed to rise, Levisohn mentioned.