![Data analyzing in commodities energy market: the charts and quotes on display. US WTI crude oil price analysis. Stunning price drop for the last 20 years.](https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1213764535/image_1213764535.jpg?io=getty-c-w750)
SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images
Crude oil futures surged Monday in their largest one-day gain since February, lifted by expectations for stronger energy demand.
Oil prices tumbled to four-month lows last week following OPEC+’s decision to begin unwinding some voluntary production cuts later this year.
But the oil market was “oversold,” and traders are realizing that OPEC’s plan for higher production is “hardly carved in stone, and likely to be reversed if prices remain weak,” Michael Lynch, president at Strategic Energy & Economic Research, told Marketwatch.
“Combined with [last week’s] good jobs report and the indications of heavy summer travel, demand looks likely to be firmer rather than weaker,” Lynch said.
Goldman Sachs analysts said they expect Brent crude to rise to $86/bbl in Q3, believing that solid summer transport demand will push the oil market into a deficit of 1.3M bbl/day in the quarter.
“Futures are higher as expectations of summer demand are supportive of prices… despite the broader macro landscape remaining less optimistic than weeks previous,” Gelber and Associates analysts said, according to Reuters.
Analysts at Ritterbusch credited the day’s gains to “bullish comments from some of the larger U.S. banks” which suggested enough tightening of oil balances in Q3 to push the market into a deficit, and to technical factors.
“We are not viewing this as the start of a major price uptrend,” Ritterbusch wrote.
Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for July delivery closed +2.9% to $77.74/bbl, its largest one-day dollar and percentage gain since February 8, and front-month August Brent crude (CO1:COM) finished +2.5% to $81.63/bbl, its best single-day showing since March 13; it was the highest close for both crude benchmarks since May 30.
ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (NRGU), (USOI)
The U.S. average price of gasoline at the pump fell to $3.40/gal on Monday, the lowest June level since 2021, GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan said, in an “ultra-rare” double-digit weekly decline during the summer driving season.
“We’ve seen one of the larger weekly drops in the national average price of gasoline in some time, and what incredible timing that it comes at the beginning of the summer driving season,” De Haan told Marketwatch.
After falling ~$0.10/gal last week, pump prices have fallen nearly $0.24/gal from a month ago, GasBuddy data shows.
“This is likely happening because not only have oil prices dropped, but refinery maintenance is behind us, and refineries have continued to crank up output, boosting supplies,” De Haan told Marketwatch.
The analyst also said the drop likely has nothing to do with the Biden administration’s recent decision to release 1M barrels of gasoline from the U.S. Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve to help lower fuel prices during the summer driving season.
“None of the states where the release would have an impact are showing in a list of largest weekly or monthly declines,” De Haan said.