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Already a top target for the GOP, Republicans are increasingly optimistic they can flip the Democrat-controlled open Senate seat in Minnesota, in the wake of this week’s stunning move by Democratic Gov. Tim Walz to drop his re-election bid amid the state’s sweeping fraud scandal.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) for months has been eyeing the seat, held by retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, as the GOP works to not only defend but expand their current 53-47 majority in the Senate in this year’s midterm elections.
This week, they landed more political ammunition, after Walz, the Democratic Party’s 2024 vice presidential nominee, ended his campaign for an unprecedented third term amid stinging criticism from Republicans and some Democrats over his handling of Minnesota’s massive welfare assistance fraud scandal.
“The systematic fraud overseen by Tim Walz and Minnesota Democrats has put the state’s open Senate seat squarely in play and provides yet another opportunity for Senate Republicans to expand their majority,” argued Chris Gustafson, communications director for the Senate Leadership Fund, the top outside group backing Republicans in Senate elections.
WALZ REFUSES TO QUIT AFTER DROPPING RE-ELECTION BID AMID MINNESOTA FRAUD FIRESTORM: ‘OVER MY DEAD BODY’
Democratic Gov. Tim Walz speaks during a news conference on Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2026, in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Alex Kormann/Star Tribune via AP)
More than 90 people — most from Minnesota’s large Somali community — have been charged since 2022 in what has been described as the nation’s largest COVID-era scheme. How much money has been stolen through alleged money laundering operations involving fraudulent meal and housing programs, daycare centers and Medicaid services is still being tabulated.
Prosecutors say the fraud in Minnesota could total as much as $9 billion.
Some of the dozens who have already pleaded guilty in the case used the money to buy luxury cars, real estate, jewelry and international vacations, according to prosecutors, with some of the funds also sent overseas and potentially into the hands of Islamic terrorists.
And on Wednesday, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced the Justice Department will send additional federal prosecutors to Minnesota amid the expanding investigation.
PAM BONDI DISPATCHES FEDERAL PROSECUTORS TO MINNESOTA FOLLOWING SOMALI FRAUD ALLEGATIONS
Pointing to the controversy, Walz on Tuesday reiterated that “the buck stops with me. I’m accountable for this. And because of that accountability, I’m not running for office again.”
Walz’s lieutenant governor, Peggy Flanagan, is one of the two main Democrats running for their party’s Senate nomination in Minnesota.
Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a 2026 U.S. Senate candidate, is facing backlash over a viral video defending Somalis amid a massive fraud scandal. (Getty)
And this week Flanagan, a leading progressive, took some political fire over the fraud scandal from Rep. Angie Craig, a moderate Democrat and the party’s other major Senate contender.
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Craig suggested she’d be a better fit as the party’s Senate nominee since she isn’t tied directly to the fraud crisis, according to reporting from the Minnesota Star Tribune.
“We absolutely can’t afford to let her be the nominee and put this Senate seat at risk,” Craig argued, as she pointed to Flanagan.
And taking to social media, Craig touted, “I’m the only Democrat in the race who will keep this Senate seat blue.”
Democratic Rep. Angie Craig of Minnesota is running for the Senate in the 2026 race to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Meanwhile, former Republican state Sen. David Hann, who recently jumped into the Senate race, this week called on Flanagan to end her campaign.
Flanagan campaign spokesperson Lexi Blyer, in a statement to Fox News Digital, emphasized that “the Lt. Governor has made clear that the amount of fraud that is acceptable is zero and anyone who steals from taxpayer dollars should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law — which is exactly what’s happening in Minnesota.”
Regardless of who wins the party’s nomination, Democrats are confident they’ll hold the seat in November.
“Republicans haven’t won a Senate seat in Minnesota for over twenty years, and that won’t change in November. Any Republican running will be dragged down by their support for the incredibly toxic GOP agenda that strips health care from tens of thousands of Minnesotans and raises costs,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Maddy McDaniel argued in a statement to Fox News Digital.
And pointing to what she called “the fundamental facts of the race,” Lauren French, communications director at Senate Majority PAC, the top Senate Democrat-aligned outside group, told Fox News Digital that “Minnesota is struggling because of the economic policies of Donald Trump and Republicans, and the state will elect a Democrat who will devote their time in office to lowering prices, creating affordable housing, and ensuring all Americans have quality healthcare.”
But polling conducted last month in Minnesota by the NRSC suggests that the fraud scandal may stick to the Democratic Senate candidates. And the survey, shared with Fox News Digital, indicates that 50% of likely voters are more likely to support a GOP Senate candidate pledging stronger oversight and audits.
“The seriously retired Governor Tim Walz and Minnesota Democrats like Peggy Flanagan and Angie Craig oversaw massive fraud that has hurt Minnesotans, and their failed leadership puts Minnesota in play for Republicans in 2026,” NRSC regional press secretary Nick Puglia emphasized.
And Gustafson claimed “Democrats spent years ignoring the billions stolen from children and taxpayers” and that they’ll pay a price at the ballot box in November.
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The NRSC was optimistic about their chances in Minnesota, where no Republican has won a Senate election in nearly a quarter-century, even before the scandal grabbed national headlines in recent weeks.
“We’re excited about expanding our map, and Minnesota is one of the target states that we’re looking at,” NRSC Chair Sen. Tim Scott highlighted in a Fox News Digital interview a month ago.
“We see real reasons to be optimistic. President Trump was very close in Minnesota. It’s a four-point race. We know with the right candidate, we will be successful,” Scott emphasized.
And that candidate may be former professional football sideline reporter turned political activist and commentator Michele Tafoya, who is inching closer to launching a Republican Senate bid.
Former sportscaster turned political activist and commentator Michele Tafoya is seen at the Fox News Channel studios on April 18, 2024, in New York City. (Roy Rochlin/Getty Images)
Tafoya met in December with the NRSC, which has been recruiting her to jump into the race, sources confirmed to Fox News Digital last month.
Tafoya, a longtime NFL sideline reporter and announcer, gave up her career at NBC Sports in 2022 as she became more politically active, saying at the time that she wanted to pursue other opportunities. She served as co-chair of 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kendall Qualls’ unsuccessful campaign against Democratic Gov. Tim Walz.
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Since then, Tafoya has become a vocal critic of Walz and far-left Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar and has slammed both of them over the fraud scandal.
If she announces her candidacy, Tafoya would join a crowded GOP Senate primary field that already includes 2024 Senate nominee Royce White, a former NBA basketball player; retired U.S. Navy officer Tom Weiler, a 2022 GOP congressional nominee; former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze and Hann.
