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As the Trump administration weighs diplomacy and military pressure against Iran, a political clock is ticking at home.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz — the global oil choke point largely shuttered since the conflict with Iran due to Iranian attacks — reopened immediately, it could take months for oil flows to return due to logistical bottlenecks involving trapped tankers, swollen inventories and damaged oil infrastructure, according to Kpler oil analyst Matt Smith, pushing normalization of global energy markets closer to the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
“It’s then going to take until the fourth quarter of the year for things to return to normal,” Smith said.
The question facing Republicans is whether the economic consequences of the conflict will outlast the conflict itself. While the White House continues to pursue a diplomatic resolution with Iran, strategists and energy analysts say disruptions to global energy markets could linger long after any agreement is reached, leaving voters with months of elevated costs heading into the midterms.
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The economic effects are already visible.
The national average price of regular gasoline stood at $4.241 per gallon Thursday, according to AAA, up from $3.144 a year earlier — an increase of nearly 35%.
Moody’s Analytics estimates the conflict has cost American households roughly $100 billion throughout the past three months, or about $750 per household, through higher fuel, transportation and related costs.
To some, the conflict already has gone on long enough to create lasting political consequences.
“There is a timeline and we’ve already passed it,” GOP strategist Doug Heye told Fox News Digital.
The White House rejected the notion that the conflict could become a long-term political liability, arguing that any economic disruption would be temporary.
“President Trump remains laser-focused on keeping the American people safe, lowering costs for working families, and making our country greater than ever before,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told Fox News Digital. “The President and his energy team anticipated short-term market disruptions, communicated them openly to the American people, and implemented an aggressive plan to mitigate any impacts.”
Rogers said Trump “will never allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon” and argued that “when the President forces this conflict to a successful end, gas prices will drop back to multi-year lows and global energy markets will be much more stable in the long term.”
Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened immediately, it could take months for oil flows to return due to logistical bottlenecks. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)
“We were promised that this would be a short operation, and repeatedly told it would all be over in 24–48 hours,” he went on. “This is no longer a blip.”
Others see a narrow window remaining.
“I think that it really needs to be resolved by July Fourth,” Republican strategist John Feehery told Fox News Digital. “If it’s not resolved by July Fourth, I don’t think the economy is going to have time to really kind of get going on all levels.”
Feehery’s July 4 benchmark coincides with a period in which the White House hopes to shift public attention toward the kickoff of America’s 250th anniversary celebrations.
The administration has alternated between signaling that a deal is near and warning that military action remains possible. More recently, Trump has expressed frustration with the pace of negotiations, saying they had become “very boring” and that he “couldn’t care less” if the talks collapsed because Iran was taking too long, while also predicting that oil prices would “be dropping like a rock” in the near future and maintaining that a deal remains possible.
But regardless of how the negotiations conclude, strategists argue that economic relief must arrive soon if Republicans hope to avoid carrying the conflict’s fallout into the midterms.
Republicans enter the midterms defending a narrow House majority that many analysts view as vulnerable to the traditional midterm backlash against a president’s party. The Senate landscape is more favorable to Republicans, though several races in states such as North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Texas are expected to be closely watched.
Feehery argued that the political impact of the conflict ultimately will have less to do with uranium stockpiles, enrichment levels or the details of any final agreement than with whether voters feel economically secure.
According to AAA, the national average price of regular gasoline stood at $4.241 per gallon Thursday, up from $3.144 a year earlier — an increase of nearly 35%. (Chona Kasinger/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“They don’t care about that,” Feehery said when asked about the substance of a potential deal. “From the voters’ minds, they’re not worried about far-flung issues. They’re worried about the economy at home.”
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“George H. W. Bush kicked Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait and his approval ratings were around 91%, and he lost the next election,” Feehery said.
Even if a diplomatic breakthrough comes in the coming weeks, Americans may not see immediate relief at the pump.
Smith said the U.S. has been insulated from the worst supply disruptions because of its own domestic production, but the country is increasingly serving as an energy supplier to regions cut off from Middle Eastern flows.
More recently, Trump has expressed frustration with the pace of negotiations, saying they had become “very boring” and that he “couldn’t care less” if the talks collapsed because Iran was taking too long, while also predicting that oil prices would “be dropping like a rock” in the near future and maintaining that a deal remains possible. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File)
“We’re likely going to be seeing higher prices coming through in the U.S. because of that because, you know, we’re getting to a scarcity issue,” Smith said.
As Asian countries replace lost Middle Eastern crude and Europe seeks alternative sources of jet fuel, overseas buyers are increasingly competing for American energy exports, he said.
“Countries outside of the U.S. are bidding up U.S. prices,” Smith said.
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For Republicans, the concern is that the economic fallout could outlast the conflict itself.
“Even if this were all over tomorrow, prices won’t immediately come back to normal and if or when they do, voters don’t get a refund from the high bills they’ve already paid,” Heye said.
