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It’s been nearly four decades since a Democrat won a U.S. Senate election in reliably red Texas.
But a new poll suggests that Democrats have a good shot this year of breaking their long losing streak.
Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico and Republican nominee Ken Paxton, the longtime state attorney general, are tied at 47% support among likely voters in Texas, according to a New York Times/Siena survey released on Tuesday.
Paxton, who defeated longtime GOP incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in last month’s Republican nomination runoff election just days after landing the backing of President Donald Trump, is facing off against Talarico, a state representative considered a rising star in the Democratic Party, in a midterm race that is among a handful that will likely determine if the Republicans hold their slim Senate majority.
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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Republicans’ Senate nominee, speaks during a runoff election night event in Plano, Texas, on May 26, 2026. (Antranik Tavitian/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The poll points to some troubling signs for Paxton, who has faced a slew of scandals and legal problems that have battered him over the past decade. In 2023, the Texas House of Representatives voted to impeach Paxton, but he was eventually acquitted of all charges by the state Senate. And Paxton is dealing with a messy divorce, with his wife Angela, a state senator, citing “biblical grounds” based on “recent discoveries” in filing last year to end their marriage.
According to the poll, fewer than four in 10 respondents said Paxton has good character or the right kind of moral values. And half said Paxton, a MAGA firebrand and one of the leaders of the legal effort to overturn Trump’s 2020 presidential election loss, is too extreme.
Also problematic for Paxton is that his support, at 47%, is below the 50% of respondents who said they preferred Republicans to control the Senate next year.
The poll also shows Talarico winning the support of 61% of Hispanic — voters less than two years after Trump carried the Hispanic vote in Texas in the last presidential election — and leading the 63-year-old Paxton by 27 points among independents.
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Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico addresses supporters at a rally in Houston. (F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
And the survey spotlights a massive gender gap, with Talarico winning female votes by 18 points and Paxton ahead among male voters by the same margin.
Talarico, a 37-year-old former middle school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian who topped progressive firebrand and vocal Trump critic Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March Democratic Senate primary, has emerged as the top Democratic fundraiser in Senate races, hauling in a massive $27 million in the first three months of this year.
But Republicans have repeatedly targeted Talarico, spotlighting his past controversial comments, including suggesting that “God is nonbinary” or that there are six biological sexes.
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In his victory speech last month, Paxton mocked the Democratic nominee as “tofu Talarico,” “six-gender Jimmy,” “James Talafreako” and “low-T Talarico.”
And he said in a Fox News Digital interview after winning the nomination: “James Talarico doesn’t belong in Texas. We cannot let him be the center of the state of Texas. He fits in California. He does not fit here.”
The poll suggests the Democratic Party brand may impede Talarico, with a majority of respondents seeing Democrats as too far to the left.
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Democratic Texas State Rep. James Talarico, left, and longtime Attorney General Ken Paxton are facing off this year in a crucial Midterm Election showdown in the race to succeed GOP Sen. John Cornyn. (Alberto Silva Fernandez/Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
And following a divisive primary with Crockett, who is Black, the poll indicates that 12% of Black voters have a negative opinion of Talarico, who is White.
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But likely helping Talarico is the economy.
Sixty percent of those questioned gave a thumbs down to how Trump was handling cost-of-living issues, which will do Paxton no favors.
It’s no surprise: Talarico is highlighting economic concerns over soaring prices, saying in a new ad as he walks out of a grocery store that “too many Texans feel like they’re drowning.”
