Before the new Congress can do anything — including certifying Donald J. Trump as the winner of the 2024 presidential election — the House will need to elect its speaker in a vote scheduled for Friday.
For decades, that was largely a formality devoid of any drama. But two years ago, a Republican revolt prolonged the process for four agonizing days and 15 contentious votes, laying bare the party’s divisions and setting the stage for a combative session.
Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana in November won unanimous support from House Republicans for another term as speaker, and he has Mr. Trump’s endorsement. But he is facing resistance from hard-right members of his party, and given his razor-thin majority, which could leave him room for only one defection, his re-election is no certainty.
Mr. Johnson acknowledged on “Fox & Friends” on Thursday that he could “only afford to lose one or two” Republican votes on Friday if he wanted to win the gavel.
No Republican has emerged to challenge Mr. Johnson, and the G.O.P. is facing overwhelming pressure to get the process over with quickly this year so that Congress can certify Mr. Trump’s election as scheduled on Monday.
But at least one Republican has already said he will not back Mr. Johnson, with others expressing concerns about his leadership. If Mr. Johnson fails to cobble together a majority, the House could face a deadlock similar to the one that took hold in 2023, which could mean several votes before lawmakers finally elect a speaker.
Here’s how it works.
Johnson needs a majority to be elected.
Choosing a new speaker is the first order of business in the House after the new Congress convenes. It happens even before newly elected representatives are sworn in, and must be resolved before anything else is addressed.
Around noon, lawmakers congregate on the House floor, and leaders from each party nominate their candidates. Republicans are expected to name Mr. Johnson, and Democrats will put forward their leader, Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York.
The House clerk then proceeds to an alphabetical roll-call vote in which each lawmaker replies with a name. That could be Mr. Johnson, Mr. Jeffries or — if lawmakers wish to lodge a protest vote — any name of their choosing, including someone who is not a member of Congress.
The threshold for election is a majority of those present and voting — 218 if the full complement of 435 members of the House participates. But vacancies and absences could complicate the math.
With the resignation of former Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida, Republicans will hold a total of 219 seats, while Democrats hold 215. That means Mr. Johnson can afford to lose only one Republican vote if all members are present and voting.
Mr. Johnson could still win the speakership even if he does not have the support of a majority. He could persuade lawmakers who oppose him to vote “present” rather than naming another person, or to simply “take a walk” and miss the vote entirely.
That is not an uncommon occurrence. Two years ago, Kevin McCarthy won the gavel on the 15th ballot with only 216 votes. John Boehner was elected as speaker with 216 votes in 2015, as was Nancy Pelosi in 2021.
If he falls short, the deadlocked House must keep voting.
If Mr. Johnson cannot win enough votes on the first ballot, he will most likely haggle with the holdouts and make concessions in exchange for their support. Mr. McCarthy hobbled his own speakership this way by caving to ultraconservatives who insisted on holding key positions that would give them sway over what bills could be brought up — and a provision that allowed a single member to make a motion to depose him.
A challenger could emerge, although no other Republican has officially announced a bid for the speakership. One name that has repeatedly emerged is Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio, a co-founder and former chair of the far-right House Freedom Caucus. He lost a bid for speaker in October 2023, after Mr. McCarthy’s ouster, and Mr. Johnson won the post instead.
Whatever happens, the House must continue voting again and again until somebody can win a majority.
One defector has already emerged; more could follow.
At least one Republican, Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky, has pledged to vote against Mr. Johnson despite Mr. Trump’s endorsement.
Another detractor, Representative Victoria Spartz of Indiana, was also unmoved by the president-elect’s endorsement and indicated that her vote will depend on whether Mr. Johnson can satisfy her series of demands, which includes a crackdown on government spending.
Several Republicans on the far right have refused to say whether they will support Mr. Johnson, including Representatives Andy Harris of Maryland, the chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, and Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, its former leader.
If no speaker is chosen, Trump’s certification could be delayed.
Mr. Trump has an ambitious legislative agenda, and Republican congressional leaders have made it clear they want to move quickly to begin working on it. But without a speaker, they would be unable to consider any bills or even swear in any members. The House would essentially be rendered a useless entity, as it was in early 2023, until the election is settled.
If there is no speaker in place by Monday, there would also be consequences for Mr. Trump himself. Without a functioning House, Congress could not meet for the constitutionally mandated joint session on Jan. 6 to certify the results of the 2024 presidential election. Mr. Johnson has been reminding Republicans of that fact early and often.
