Amazon’s own delivery network is handling a rapidly growing share of its US packages, with a recent internal forecast projecting that figure could approach nine out of every 10 packages by 2029.
Amazon’s latest preliminary forecast puts its own delivery network at 86.3% of its US packages in 2027, 87.4% in 2028, and 88.7% in 2029, according to an internal planning document from late July that Business Insider reviewed.
The shift is happening faster than Amazon previously projected. Its prior estimates put first-party delivery at 83.8% of US packages in 2027 and 85% in 2028, according to the document.
In 2023, the company said it delivered over two-thirds of its own packages in the US, the last time it publicly disclosed that figure.
Amazon’s latest plan projects that its own delivery network would handle roughly 12.2 billion US packages in 2027, growing to 15.8 billion in 2029.
The previously unreported figures quantify how profoundly Amazon’s relationship with the traditional parcel industry has changed. Over the past decade, Amazon has transformed itself from one of the biggest customers of carriers like UPS and the US Postal Service into a delivery giant in its own right.
Some outside carriers have also pulled back or changed the capacity they provide. At the same time, greater control over delivery has become increasingly important to Amazon’s retail business. CEO Andy Jassy has said faster delivery leads customers to consider Amazon for more of their purchases.
An Amazon spokesperson told Business Insider that the projections shouldn’t be interpreted as finalized plans.
“We’re always planning and forecasting across our operations, and we regularly produce numerous versions and updates of planning documents,” the spokesperson said. “Any internal projections are preliminary, subject to significant revision, and should not be treated as definitive or as representing finalized plans.”
Amazon absorbs the growth
Amazon’s forecast puts almost all of its projected package growth through its own network.
Under the plan, total US package volume grows from roughly 14.1 billion in 2027 to 17.8 billion in 2029, an increase of about 3.7 billion packages. Over the same period, volume allocated to outside carriers barely changes, hovering around 2 billion packages.
Amazon’s first-party network doesn’t mean Amazon’s employees make all those deliveries. Much of its last-mile network relies on independent Delivery Service Partners that use Amazon-branded vans, as well as Amazon Flex contractors who deliver packages in their own vehicles.
Amazon’s projections expect some of the fastest growth to come from its Sub Same-Day network, which stores products closer to customers for delivery within hours. Its share of Amazon’s first-party package volume is projected to grow from 17.1% in 2027 to 21.3% in 2029.
The projections indicate that Amazon’s rural network will account for just over 11% of first-party package volume. The company has committed more than $4 billion to triple the size of that network by the end of 2026.
Amazon is also trying to make its delivery infrastructure faster and more productive.
Business Insider previously reported that Amazon is testing all-day delivery with faster shipping windows and exploring Walmart-sized stores under Project Kobe that could serve as pickup points and local delivery hubs. It’s also developing Project Tetromino, a highly automated delivery station that could process packages more quickly.
Amazon projects a shrinking role for traditional carriers
As Amazon’s own delivery network grows, it expects traditional carriers to handle a smaller share of its packages.
USPS’s share is declining in Amazon’s forecast. The company’s prior plan allocated roughly 13% of US packages to the Postal Service in 2027, compared with about 10% in the newer forecast. The latest plan has that share falling to 8% by 2029.
The decline comes after a tense round of negotiations with USPS over a new delivery contract. The companies reached an agreement earlier this year.
The new USPS contract, signed in April, establishes a minimum of 1.27 billion packages, 19% below the previous contract’s minimum, according to the latest document on Amazon’s projections. The preliminary plan allocates about 1.4 billion packages annually to USPS, though the final amount will depend partly on the capacity and coverage of Amazon’s own network.
UPS, meanwhile, decided to cut the volume it handles for Amazon by more than half by the second half of 2026, citing lower profitability. Amazon’s preliminary forecast has UPS handling 1.8% of its US packages in 2027 and falling to 1.4% by 2029, or roughly 250 million packages a year.
FedEx plays a smaller role, accounting for about 0.4% of Amazon’s US package volume. Amazon revived its relationship with FedEx last year after the companies cut ties in 2019.
Amazon isn’t cutting traditional carriers out entirely. The internal document says the USPS contract expires in 2029 and assumes it will be renewed “given the mutual dependency between Amazon and USPS.”
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