The 2026 midterms have arrived, and results are rolling in.
Democrats are projected to win control of the Senate and scored a stunning victory in Texas, where Democratic nominee James Talarico is expected to flip a Texas Senate seat in a race that saw SpaceX CEO Elon Musk donate over $150 million to Republican candidate Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Beyond control of Congress, Tuesday’s election will illustrate the extent of Silicon Valley’s political power and the breadth of the AI backlash.
In addition to the candidates, there are big ballot questions looming, none more so than the California wealth tax fight.
Here’s what we’re watching.
Mark Schiefelbein/AP
Texas Senate
What happened: Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico is expected to flip a Texas Senate seat, The Associated Press projected. Talarico’s likely defeat of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is a stunning development that some Republicans feared ever since Paxton emerged from a bitter primary and subsequent runoff. Sen. John Cornyn warned that if Paxton beat him, his fellow Republicans would need to spend gigantic sums of money to hold the seat. Enter Elon Musk. The world’s richest man has been frequently trashing Talarico on X. More importantly, Musk has donated at least $158 million that has been routed to a pro-Paxton super PAC. The victory means Democrats are now within striking distance of flipping the Senate, a thought that was considered unlikely just months ago.
Ohio Senate
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What happened: Former Sen. Sherrod Brown is returning to Congress, the Associated Press projected. Brown is expected to prevail over Sen. Jon Husted, a former lieutenant governor, who was trying to hang on to former Vice President JD Vance’s Senate seat. Brown, a former three-term senator, criticized Husted for his previous support for data center development. Husted has said the issue should be left to communities and no longer supports offering tax incentives for new data center construction. Earlier this summer, Senate Republicans’ campaign arm warned AI labs that if Husted goes down “and data centers get the blame, politicians across the country will take notice — and they will not go near the next one.”
Pennsylvania 1st District
What happened: Bucks County commissioner Bob Harvie is projected to defeat five-term Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, per the Associated Press. Harvie focused his first ad of the general election on his call for a data center moratorium. He also blasted Fitzpatrick over the Republican’s previous support for a massive Amazon data center in Falls Township, which is in Bucks County. In 2024, Trump narrowly lost the district, but Fitzpatrick still easily won reelection by nearly 13 points.
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Michigan Senate
Candidates: Former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, a Democrat; former Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican; Douglas P. Marsh, Green Party; Lydia Christensen, Libertarian Party
Where it stands: No race compares to the drama of the Michigan Senate race. On Sunday, Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost to El-Sayed after a bitter primary, reversed herself and issued a last-minute endorsement of Rogers. Beyond the headlines, the race offers some interesting policy contrasts. Echoing Sen. Bernie Sanders (and Trump), El-Sayed has called for the government to take equity stakes in AI companies. El-Sayed also wants to force tech giants like Microsoft to divest from AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. Rogers, the Republican hopeful, has called for a pause on data center development in the state. If Republicans want to hold the majority, Rogers will almost certainly need to flip the seat.
Polls close: Most polls in the state close at 8 p.m. EST. For counties in the Central Time Zone, polls close at 9 p.m EST.
The outlook: Cook Political Report rates it as a “Lean Democrat.”
History: In 2024, Trump won by just over 1 point. At the same time, Sen. Elissa Slotkin narrowly beat Rogers by roughly 202,000 votes. Michigan has not elected a Republican senator since 1994.
Michigan 7th District
Candidates: Rep. Tom Barrett, a Republican; Sunrise Movement cofounder William Lawrence, a Democrat; Shane Dedrick, Green Party
Where it stands: Barrett is seeking reelection in a southern Michigan district centered around Lansing. William Lawrence, a cofounder of the progressive climate-focused organization Sunrise Movement, has tried to tie Barrett to a proposed $1 billion hyperscale data center near Mason, Michigan. Barrett has said that local officials should be able to make decisions about data centers, contrasting his views with Lawrence’s support of a data center moratorium.
The outlook: Cook Political Report rates it a “Toss-Up.”
History: In 2024, Trump won the district by just over 1 point, according to The Downballot’s estimates. Barrett won by just under 17,000 votes.
Ohio 9th District
Candidates: Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat; former Ohio state Rep. Derek Merrin, a Republican
Where it stands: Republicans’ hopes of defying history and retain their majority run squarely through Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a 22-term Ohio Democrat, and her northwestern Ohio district that stretches from the Indiana border to just west of Cleveland. Kaptur has criticized Merrin for voting in favor of tax incentives for data center development. Merrin has said Kaptur is “lying” about his record, but as part of a sweeping 2017 budget law, Ohio lawmakers voted to extend the deadline for certain data centers to qualify for tax incentives.
The outlook: The Cook Political Report rates it as a “Lean Democrat.”
History: In 2024, Trump won the district by roughly 11 points, according to The Downballot’s estimates. Kaptur won by under 2,400 votes. Kaptur is one of 22 Democrats representing districts that Trump also won.
Wisconsin 3rd District
Candidates: Rep. Derrick Van Orden, a Republican; Rebecca Cooke, a Democrat
Where it stands: Van Orden, a two-term Wisconsin Republican, is trying to hold on to his western Wisconsin district, which includes Eau Claire and La Crosse. Cooke, a former political consultant who now works as a waitress, has echoed Sen. Bernie Sanders’ call for a federal moratorium on data center development. Cooke has also hammered Van Orden over data centers. In response, Van Orden has accused Cooke of working too closely with tech groups.
Polls close: 9 p.m. EST
The outlook: The Cook Political Report rates it as “Lean Democrat.”
History: In 2024, Trump won the district by over 7 points, according to The Downballot’s estimates. Van Orden defeated Cooke by roughly 3 points.
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California billionaire tax
What’s on the ballot: A one-time 5% tax on Californians with over $1 billion in wealth. Two competing proposals would effectively nullify the proposed tax.
The sides: The Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West labor union proposed the tax. Rep. Ro Khanna, a Democrat who is a possible 2028 candidate, has lent his support, as has Sen. Bernie Sanders. Gov. Gavin Newsom, another possible 2028 candidate, is opposing the measure. A number of Silicon Valley elites are also in opposition, including Google cofounder Sergey Brin.
Polls close: 11 p.m. EST
The outlook: There’s been little polling this fall. The few public polls have been all over the place. A recent UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies-Los Angeles Times survey found opponents had a 50% to 42% edge among likely voters.
Be prepared to wait: California has a lot of votes to count, and historically some races have taken days or even weeks to call. The fact that there are three intertwined ballot initiatives may also make it more difficult for news organizations to project a winner. In the event that multiple initiatives pass, the one that receives the most affirmative votes generally trumps conflicting ones.
