You know how Big Tech companies keep coming out with new versions of face computers, even though consumers don’t seem that interested in them?
So here’s an interesting data point: An analyst report that predicts the market for goggles like Apple Vision Pro and Meta’s Quest line will actually shrink this year.
International Data Corp. projects that shipments for augmented reality and virtual reality headsets will decline by 12% in 2025 — from 7.5 million units in 2024 to 6.6 million this year.
That’s a striking decrease given that IDC and other prognosticators have been overly optimistic about the market for those goggles for years. But IDC says it’s still optimistic about the market, and projects that it will roar back in 2026, with 87% growth and more than 11.2 million units shipped.
And if you really have a lot invested in the idea that wearing electronics on your face is something lots of people will do, consider this: IDC’s forecast does not include Meta’s line of computerized Ray-Ban glasses, which have become a surprising hit — or at minimum, they have sold more units than Meta expected. That’s because IDC is only counting devices that have a display in them, IDC researcher Jitesh Ubrani tells me. A Meta rep declined to comment.
That also means a new line of Ray-Bans — ones that reportedly do have a display built into them, like this model Bloomberg thinks could be on sale by the end of the year, and cost between $1,000 and $1,400 — are counted in IDC’s projections.
Ubrani isn’t sold on the market for the more sophisticated Ray-Bans yet, in part because of the price. Meanwhile, he’s pretty bullish about “regular” internet glasses like the Meta Ray-Bans, which can connect to the internet but don’t have any display screen. He thinks the market for those devices will grow, from 2.7 million in 2024 to 5.5 million in 2025.
Mark Zuckerberg thinks this is a big year for Ray-Bans, too. The company has been talking them up more on earnings calls, and in January, the Meta CEO said 2025 could be a “defining year” for the tech — while acknowledging that the breakthrough may not happen this year, after all.
What does any of that mean? I’m going to take the easy way out and give you a shrug emoji here.
I’ve tried a bunch of the devices that are on the market now — like Apple’s Vision Pro — and a demo of one that might come to market one day — Meta’s Orion — and I’ve generally come away impressed with the tech. But I’m still waiting for someone to figure out how to make these things small enough and cheap enough that I’d be able to justify the purchase and feel OK wearing them for extended use. And then I’d have to figure out how I would use these in daily life, once the novelty wears off. My hunch is that I’m not the only one.
